000 AGXX40 KNHC 122000 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EST MON JAN 12 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 26N94W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE A WARM FRONT IS ALONG THE FAR NE WATERS ALONG COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS JUST ENTERED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF ROUGHLY ALONG 88W. THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 25N E OF 85.5W...AND FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 85.5W AND 89.5W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIFTING TO THE NE QUICKLY...AND TOWARDS THE SW AND CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE NE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY ON TUE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW WATERS WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NE MEXICO TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY. A REINFORCING AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE FIRST FRONT SE WED...AND TO SSE OF THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF 20-25 KT NLY FLOW TO SEEP SWD OVER THE FAR W CENTRAL GULF THU AND THU NIGHT AND INTO THE FAR SW GULF FRI MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING TO 30 KT OR TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR W CENTRAL GULF THU AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS PARALLEL MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL UPDATE FORECAST AS NECESSARY PER OUTPUT FROM FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 10 FT IN THE FAR W CENTRAL AND SW GULFS THU INTO FRI AND SUBSIDE DURING FRI AFTERNOON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GALE WARNING THAT WAS VALID LAST NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING FOR WATERS NEAR THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS OF 18 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH ASCAT DATA FROM 1510 UTC AND ASCATB DATA FROM 1424 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED A SOLID SWATH OF NE 25-30 KT WINDS S OF ABOUT 13.5N AND BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. BOUNDARY WIND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT AFTER TUE MORNING...AND CONTINUE AT THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH LATE WED...THEN DIMINISH FURTHER TO 15-20 KT THU THROUGH SAT WITH A BRIEF PULSE AT 20-25 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRI. BOTH ALTIMETER DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 10-14 FT RANGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS OF IN THE 9-11 FT RANGE ARE PRESENT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... 6-8 FT SEAS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-7 FT SEAS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 9-12 FT SEAS ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING A DECREASE TO WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH DAY 5. THE 9-12 FT SEAS IN E SWELLS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH SEAS LOWERING TO BELOW 8 FT FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 2-4 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST NW OF THE FORECAST WATERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE WED. LOW PRES WILL FORM JUST NW OF THE AREA ON THU...PUSHING A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN WATERS THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE FAST IN MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH THE GFS AND AND UKMET SOLNS PLACING THE NORTHERN PART OF FRONT IN THE FAR NE PART OF THE BASIN EARLY ON FRI WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM IS A BIT SLOWER AT THAT TIME. FOR EARLY FRI (12 UTC) WILL FOLLOW A PLACEMENT POSITION OF THE FRONT FROM NEAR 31N69W SW TO NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA...AND OVER THE FAR E AND SE WATERS SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE BRINGING A SWATH OF FRESH NE TO STRONG WINDS NE OF THE BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. NW TO N FLOW OF 20-25 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS ON FRI WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.