000 AGXX40 KNHC 111953 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 253 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK 1020 MB LOW OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR 29N94W WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW OF 1018 MB AT 22N94W... AND CONTINUES SE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE 1018 MB LOW HAS BECOME EVIDENT ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND ON THE 1530 UTC ASCAT PASS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF IN COMBINATION WITH THE LOWS AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IS HELPING TO ACTIVATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 94W. THIS ACTIVITY CONTAINS FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES CONCENTRATED FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO TRACK GENERALLY NEWD THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW WATERS NE OF THE LOW AS WELL AS OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SLIGHTLY TO 7-9 FT OVER THE NW WATERS... 6-8 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF...6-7 FT OVER THE SE GULF...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE NE GULF. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE NEAR THE NE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON TO INLAND SW LOUISIANA TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE NE WHILE WEAKENING FURTHER THROUGH MON. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY MIDWEEK. A REINFORCING NORTHERLY PUSH WILL MOVE THE BOUNDARY TO THE SE THU. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TRAIL THE REINFORCING FRONT WITH SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 8-10 FT PRIMARILY S OF 25N E OF 90W. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE AREA LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT S OF 23N W OF 91W...AND TO 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE WITH LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION AT THAT TIME. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W ABOUT 20 KT EXTENDS FROM JUST SW HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N74W TO 15N75W. THIS FEATURE HAS A GOOD TRACK HISTORY AS DEDUCED FROM LONG TERM SATELLITE ANIMATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS WHILE LOSING DEFINITION. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY IT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT STRONG WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE DIMINISHED TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W...WITH FRESH TRADES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 10-12 FT RANGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...8-11 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-8 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 8-10 FT IN NE TO E SWELLS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PULSE TO GALE WARNING FORCE LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD MON WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND DECREASE TRADES...TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE FETCH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS IS RESULTING IN LARGE NE TO E SWELLS PROPAGATING INTO THIS AREA. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 OR 7 FT INTO FRI. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 13 FT MON THROUGH TUE BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 11 FT TUE NIGHT AND WED AND TO 9 FT THU AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO JUST E OF NE FLORIDA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N66W TO 22N68W MOVING W RATHER QUICKLY. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS N OF 29N AND W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE 1528 UTC ASCAT HIGHLIGHTED A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND E-SE 20 KT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM TO ITS SE AND S. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE OVER THE REGION OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR BATCH OF 6-8 FT SEAS FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE TRANSITIONING TO TROUGH ON ITS WESTERN SEGMENT NEAR 80W THIS EVENING AND LIFT NW TOWARDS THE NE FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE ON MON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST INTO THE NW WATERS ON MON. THIS FRONT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRES WILL FORM E OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON THU AND TRACK NE PUSHING A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN WATERS INTO THU NIGHT AT WHICH TIME IT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO WESTERN CUBA. BY FRI...THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N66W TO EASTERN CUBA. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE INDUCED BY A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL BRING NW-N 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS TO AROUND 9 OR 10 FT. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT WITH POSSIBLE POCKETS OF 30 KT E OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS FRI. THE GFS MODEL DEPICTS THIS MORE EXTENSIVELY THEN THE ECMWF. OTHER MODELS ARE LIGHTER WITH WINDS WITH THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.