000 AGXX40 KNHC 070759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...EXCEPT BLENDED WITH SREF OVER THE WESTERN GULF WED AND THU...AND A ECMWF/GFS BLEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUN. MWW3/NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS THROUGH ALABAMA THIS MORNING...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH A 1052 MB HIGH EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DELIVER STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE GALES OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GULF TONIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER...WITH THE LATEST 00Z RUN ONLY SHOWING GALES FOR LATE THU IN THE FAR SW GULF OF VERACRUZ...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE OFFERS NO PROBABILITIES FOR GALES IN THE GULF...IN LINE WITH THE UKMET. THE PARALLEL RUN OF THE GFS HOWEVER IS STILL SHOWING GALES...IN LINE WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM AND SREF. GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH PRES AND COOLER AIR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WITH GALES TONIGHT OFF TAMPICO...AND THROUGH EARLY TO MID THU OFF VERACRUZ. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 13 FT OFF VERACRUZ. FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...BUT STALL AND LIFT NORTH AGAIN THROUGH SAT AS AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...LENDING SUPPORT TO A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF. THIS WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH AND PLACE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...THE GFS SHOWS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NW GULF BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERS THIS WITH A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3/NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 02 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED GALES ARE ONGOING OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS HAS BEEN A PROTRACTED GALE EVENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BROUGHT ABOUT MAINLY BE STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH IS WEAKENING CURRENTLY...AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. HIGH PRES BEHIND EACH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT GALES OFF COLOMBIA WILL LARGELY ABATE THROUGH THIS MORNING. A BRIEF RETURN OF GALES OFF COLOMBIA IS POSSIBLE LATE FRI. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...BRINGING STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FAR NW WATERS THROUGH EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE BY LATE THU FOLLOWED BY STRONG NE FLOW IN THE LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA...BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. THE STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO OFF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL ENHANCE TRADE WIND FLOW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD 8 TO 12 FT IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN AND IN THE LEE OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE UKMET IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3/NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM 31N65W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. THIS WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE S GEORGIA COAST. THE SECOND FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO NW CUBA LATE TODAY...AND FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE THU...BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE FRI. COLD AIR AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND FRONT...WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE MIXING TO THE SURFACE OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS N OF 30N AND WEST 75W TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH LATE THU AS THE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE N CENTRAL ATLC...AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BY EARLY FRI. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PERSIST IN A BROAD SWATH NE OF THE BAHAMAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL. THE THIRD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE FRI...BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE SAT. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF VIRGINIA N OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY ACROSS THE REGION S OF 31N W OF 55W LATE SAT INTO SUN...WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE S OF 22N BY LATE SUN THROUGH THE TCI/SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT S OF 27N EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.