000 AGXX40 KNHC 060800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT WITH NAM BLEND IN SW GULF FOR WED/THU AND ECMWF IN NW GULF FOR SAT/SUN. 00Z TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE GULF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS STALLING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FRONT WILL START TO DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE STRONG 1034 MB IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO...SUPPORTING GALES OFF VERACRUZ. A 03 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF GALES S OF 22N W OF 95W. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT REPORTS FROM CMAN STATIONS OFF VERACRUZ SHOW BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE...INDICATED THE GALES FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL BE ENDING AS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM STRONG WINDS FOLLOWS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF A REINFORCING FRONT MOVING INTO THE BASIN THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR UKMET...BUT GIVEN THE COLDER NATURE OF THE NEXT AIRMASS THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AIRMASS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FROM WED NIGHT IN ZONE GMZ017 AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO ZONE GMZ023 THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD REACHING AT LEAST 15 FT OFF VERACRUZ THU. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH LATE THU INTO FRI. LOOKING AHEAD...ALL MAJOR MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRES AREA OFF THE S TEXAS COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH/LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE GFS REMAINING SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE LOW PRES APPEARS WEAK AT THIS TIME...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECWMF AND THE GFS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 00Z TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS COVERS A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN S OF 17N E OF 82W AS INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT PASSES. AN EARLIER PASS AROUND 03 UTC SHOWED THE AREA OF GALES OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 77W. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES...BUT SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 20 FT OFF THE COAST BETWEEN CARTAGENA AND BARRANQUILLA IN THE AREA OF PERSISTENT GALES. BUOYS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N HAVE HELD A RANGE OF 9 TO 11 FT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WITH 8 TO 11 FT ARE ALSO NOTED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W. THE GALES OFF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAL EXTENT...THEN INCREASE ONE MORE TIME TONIGHT. THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THE TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE BASIN FROM MID WEEK ONWARDS AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS OVERTAKEN BY A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF AND ATLC WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT...AND STALL FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE THU...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. ALTHOUGH THE GALES OFF COLOMBIA WILL END...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH 8 TO 10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 00Z TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE S GEORGIA COAST OVERNIGHT...AND REACH FROM 31N69W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE WED. COLD AIR AND STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NW WINDS TO THE AREA N OF THE BAHAMAS OFF NE FLORIDA LATE WED. WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS 30N W OF 77W WED NIGHT...AS COLD AIR MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS TO ENHANCE MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH LATE THU...AS THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO EASTERN CUBA...BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING FRI ALONG ROUGHLY 24N. THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRI...BUT LINGERING NW SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 8 TO 12 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO WED. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.