000 AGXX40 KNHC 050758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 AM EST MON JAN 5 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 00Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CRYSTAL RIVER FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS FUNNELING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...SUPPORTING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. THE CMAN SITE AT ISLA DE SACRIFICIO OFF VERACRUZ VERIFIES THIS WITH REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALE FORCE AND GUSTS TO 43 KT. IN ADDITION...AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 0330 UTC INDICATES GALES AS WELL IN THIS AREA. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS ARE RANGING FROM 12 TO 18 FT ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF...AND 8 TO 12 ELSEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THROUGH TUE...THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NE AGAINST A BLOCKING DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CUBA. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY...WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION DRIFTS SE AND STALL OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NW GULF. GALES END OFF VERACRUZ TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE TUE. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF A REINFORCING FRONT MOVING INTO THE BASIN THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF OR UKMET...BUT GIVEN THE COLDER NATURE OF THE NEXT AIRMASS THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AIRMASS WILL HERALD ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD REACHING IN EXCESS OF 15 FT OFF VERACRUZ THU. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH LATE THU INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE FRESH RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF LATE FRI INTO SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 00Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS COVERS A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN S OF 18N E OF 83W AS INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT PASSES. THE EDGE OF THE WESTERN SWATH OF THE 04/1436 UTC PASS NEAR 12N AND 78W/79W SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS WITH FORECAST GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. BUOYS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N INDICATED SEAS REACHING 9 TO 12 FT...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE FETCH... DURATION...AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA...SEAS THERE MAY BE AS HIGH AS 20-22 FT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WITH 9 TO 12 FT ARE ALSO NOTED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 50W. STRONG HIGH PRES E OF BERMUDA IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE S GEORGIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE WARNING FORCE OFF COLOMBIA BY MID WEEK...THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE WARNING FORCE OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SE GULF THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THU...THEN STALL THU NIGHT AND DISSIPATE INTO FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 00Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 32N IS SHIFTING WEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND AN ATTENDANT PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE S GEORGIA COAST. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW A BRIEF RESPITE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF 25N. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E AND REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE S GEORGIA COAST BY LATE WED AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NE WINDS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE WATERS NEAR 30N W OF 77W BY WED NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS THE GALES REMAINING N OF 30N...BUT GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS IN THAT AREA...WINDS TO GALE FORCE MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE NEAR 30N THROUGH EARLY THU. AT ANY RATE...WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE LOOK MORE CERTAIN...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 14 FT BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA THU. THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA FRI...BUT LINGERING NW SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 8 TO 11 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS TO THROUGH LATE FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.