000 AGXX40 KNHC 040758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 00Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NW GULF THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SOUTH OF TAMPICO. OFFSHORE PLATFORMS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN REPORTING AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 MILES. THE FOG HAS BEEN LIFTING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO VERACRUZ BY LATE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL BUILDING TO 20 FT OFF VERACRUZ BY EARLY MON. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS STARTING TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO STALL FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE VERACRUZ AREA BY LATE MON...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE TUE. WINDS AND SEAS IN MOST AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY THROUGH MON...WITH WINDS AND SEAS OFF VERACRUZ FINALLY DIMINISHING TUE. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS PLUNGING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AIRMASS WILL MODIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY WED...BUT STILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH LATE WED. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS TO FUNNEL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE GFS AND GFS PARALLEL ALONG WITH THE ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OFF MEXICO...IN CONTRAST TO THE SOMEWHAT WEAKER UKMET. GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH PRES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GALES POSSIBLE FOR THIS TIME WED NIGHT AND THU FOR VERACRUZ AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TAMAULIPAS. IN ADDITION...UNLIKE THE CURRENT FRONT...STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL COVER THE ENTIRE GULF BY THU WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 02 UTC RAPIDSCAT SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED WINDS TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN S OF 18N. BUOYS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N INDICATED SEAS REACHING 10 TO 12 FT...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE FETCH...DURATION AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA...SEAS THERE MAY BE AS HIGH AS 20 FT. THE BUOY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT...LIKELY IN E TO SE SWELL. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WITH 9 TO 12 FT ARE ALSO NOTED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W. STRONG 1034 MB HIGH PRES NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE TRADE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MON. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA BY MID WEEK...THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR GALE OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SE GULF THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE WEEK THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST OF GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1034 MB BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 25N IN SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND A 02 UTC RAPIDSCAT SATELLITE PASS. BUOY ARE REPORTING SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N70W SE FLORIDA BY LATE MON BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE TUE. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AT LEAST S OF 22N THROUGH THE TCI/SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONGER SECOND FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY MID WEEK. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SE FOLLOWED BY STRONG N TO NE WINDS THU...BEFORE STALLING ALONG ROUGHLY 25N FRI. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN S OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO WED. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.