000 AGXX40 KNHC 031845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST OF GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW IS CURRENTLY EJECTING NE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE IN SUPPORT OF A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED INLAND ACROSS SW LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE CHARLES AS OF 03/1200 UTC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR CABO ROJO. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS E OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF...WHILE GENERALLY GENTLE NW WINDS WERE NOTED ON A 03/1548 UTC ASCAT PASS W OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3-5 FT WITH MAXIMUMS TO 6 FT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND IN AREAS OF STRONGEST SE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL GULF. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY EJECTING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE N-NE TOWARD WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA BY SUN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E-SE AS WELL EXTENDING FROM MOBILE BAY TO TUXPAN BY SUN...AND FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG HIGH AND CAA BUILDS S-SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON TO FORCE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT...THAT WILL INCREASE THIS FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE VERACRUZ COAST SUN LATE...THEN SLIDING S OF 22N SUN EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT. GALES SUGGESTED TO BEGIN IN OROGRAPHIC FORCING FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ AND THEN EXPAND S-SE INTO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 10 TO 15 FT RANGE OVERNIGHT SUN AND WITH PEAK OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF BUILD TO 12 TO 18 FT S OF 21N W OF 94W MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 83W WITH THE STRONGEST GALE FORCE WINDS NOTED ON A 03/1410 UTC ASCAT PASS REACHING AT LEAST 120 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS WIND FIELD...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT UNTIL THE STRONG SW N ATLC RIDGING IN PLACE BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD SUN NIGHT RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN. IN ADDITION...SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWED SOLID 25 KT WINDS EXTENDING AS FAR N AS 18N. BUOY 42058 AT 15N HAS RANGED FROM 13 TO 16 FT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND APPEARS RIGHT IN LINE WITH LATEST NWPS RUN. AN ALTIMETER PASS TO THE WEST OF THIS BUOY ALONG 79W INDICATED SEAS RANGING FROM 14 FT NORTH OF THE PANAMA COAST PEAKING NEAR 17 FT AROUND 15N79W AND THEN BELOW 8 FT N OF 18N WITHIN THE LEE OF JAMAICA. THE MAIN CULPRIT PROVIDING THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT IS A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N68W THAT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY E-SE AND BUILD GRADUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A NEW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT REINFORCING STRONG RIDGING ALREADY IN PLACE. GIVEN THIS REINFORCEMENT...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER TONIGHT INTO SUN AND EXPAND STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH 30 KT FLOW SUGGESTED TO EXTEND N TO 17N-17.5N AND NOCTURNAL PEAK WINDS LIKELY REACHING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 40-45 KT AGAIN OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT QUICKLY NE WHILE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SW N ATLC TO MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF STRONG UP TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND LARGE WAVE FIELD W OF 70W. PEAK SEAS EXPECTED AROUND 20-21 FT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF COLOMBIA JET SUN MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MON MORNING. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...THE STRENGTHENING CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND CREATE PERSISTENT LONG ENE-WSW FETCH ACROSS REGION WHICH WILL BUILD SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO A RANGE OF 10-12 FT IMMEDIATELY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WRAPPING WESTWARD AROUND THE NE CARIBBEAN ARCHIPELAGO. NWPS SUGGESTING PEAK SEAS AT 12-13 FT JUST E OF CENTRAL LEEWARDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST OF GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG 33N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W...THEN STATIONARY TO THE SE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS RIDGE TO THE SOUTH RECEIVESREINFORCEMENT FROM ANOTHER STRONG HIGH CURRENTLY SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE MOSTLY FAIR SKIES PREVAIL...A STRONG PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TO SE WIND STRETCHING FROM THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WESTWARD TO THE REGION OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT WERE NOTED ON AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS NORTH OF WESTERN HISPANIOLA IN THE VICINITY OF APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. TO THE NORTH OF 25N...MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES PREVAIL WITH SEAS RANGING 4-6 FT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SUN NIGHT AND ERODES GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST...WAA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO E COASTAL FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST EARLY MON...AND STALL ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS BEFORE DRIFTING N TUE NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SUN. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SUN INTO MON. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO MON. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON INTO WED. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.