000 AGXX40 KNHC 030832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 332 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW NOW INLAND ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE N GULF COAST STATES. WAA BEHIND FRONT ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG AND REDUCED VSBYS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE MEXICO COAST JUST N OF TAMPICO. A COASTAL TROF IS PRESENT TO THE S OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ. GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN E OF THE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT WITH SMALL AREAS OF 20-25 KT WINDS SUGGESTED BY GFS OFFSHORE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SW LA...OFF N YUCATAN COAST...AND THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT WITH MAXED NEAR 6 FT IN STRONGEST WINDS. MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH WITHIN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY CORRIDOR TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUN. AS THIS OCCURS...CURRENT RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF FRONTAL TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS NW WATERS. S/W ENERGY LIFTING INTO GREAT LAKES SUN WILL DRAG FRONTAL TROUGH SE AND REACH FROM MOBILE BAY TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO BY SUN MORNING...AND FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG HIGH AND CAA BUILDS S-SE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON TO FORCE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT...AND WILL INCREASE NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS S OF 21N SUN AFTERNOON AROUND 18Z THROUGH MON NIGHT. GALE WARNING WARNINGS SUGGESTED TO BEGIN IN OROGRAPHIC FORCING FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ AND THEN EXPAND SSE INTO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GFS PARALLEL SUGGESTING GALE TO 40 KT OFF OF VERACRUZ AND INTO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 9 TO 15 FT RANGE OVERNIGHT SUN AND WITH PEAK OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF BUILD TO 12 TO 18 FT S OF 21N W OF 94W MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS PARALLEL STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF SW AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO PRODUCE THE STRONGEST WIND AND WAVE EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE PAST YEAR. RECENT 02-03Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWED SOLID 25 KT WINDS EXTENDING AS FAR N AS 16.5N-17N. BUOY 42058 AT 15N HAS DROPPED FROM 13 FT TO 11 FT PAST 2 HOURS AND IS NOW ABOUT 1-2 FT LOW OF WW3. A LATE AFTERNOON ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 12 FT AS FAR N AS 16N. 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N68W AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY E-SE AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG GRADIENT TODAY...WITH WINDS SUGGESTED BY GFS PARALLEL TO PEAK OFF COLOMBIA AT 40-45 KT THIS MORNING WITH MAX SEAS AT 20 FT. NEW SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO W ATLC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND REINFORCE STRONG RIDGING ACROSS WRN ATLC. GIVEN THIS REINFORCEMENT...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER TONIGHT INTO SUN AND EXPAND STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH 30 KT FLOW SUGGESTED TO EXTEND N TO 17N-17.5N AND NOCTURNAL PEAK WINDS LIKELY REACHING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 40-45 KT AGAIN OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS QUICKLY NE WHILE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SW N ATLC TO MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF STRONG TO GALE WARNING WARNING FORCE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND LARGE WAVE FIELD W OF 70W. PEAK SEAS EXPECTED AROUND 20 FT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF COLOMBIA JET THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON SUN MORNING. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...THE STRENGTHENING CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND CREATE PERSISTENT LONG ENE-WSW FETCH ACROSS REGION WHICH WILL BUILD SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO RANGE OF 10-12 FT IMMEDIATELY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SAT THROUGH MON...AND WRAP WESTWARD AROUND NE CARIBBEAN ARCHIPELAGO. NWPS SUGGESTING PEAK SEAS AT 13 FT JUST E OF CENTRAL LEEWARDS TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BERMUDA HAS HAS DRIFTED EWD PAST 12 HOURS AND NOW 1030 MB JUST SE OF BERMUDA....WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NE THROUGH E OF AREA. REMNANTS OF OLD STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAVE DRIFTED NW ACROSS NW WATERS PAST 24 HOURS...AND LINGERING FROM NEAR DAB NE TO OFFSHORE OF CAROLINAS. WAA INCREASING THROUGH NW BAHAMAS AND INTO E COASTAL FLORIDA WHERE FOG IS BECOMING VSBY ISSUE ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. PRES GRADIENT S OF HIGH INDUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS S OF 22.5N N OF HISPANIOLA AND CONTINUING THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS AND APPROACHING STRAITS. HIGH TO BECOME ABSORBED IN RIDGING BUILDING INTO REGION FROM NW ATLC AND REINFORCE PRES GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH 15-25 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSING ALL WATERS BY SUN MORNING...AND SOLID 25 KT EXPECTED FROM MONA PASSAGE STRAIGHT THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHILE ACCELERATION THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG NE COAST OF CUBA COULD MAXIMIZE 25-30 KT TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-11 FT...AND LARGE AREA OF 9-11 FT SEAS IN E-NE WIND SWELL SPREADING ACROSS SE WATERS SAT THROUGH SUN. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST EARLY MON...AND STALL ACROSS NW PORTIONS MON NIGHT FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO UPPER FL KEYS BEFORE DRIFTING NW AND INTO S CENTRAL FL TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SUN. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO WED. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.