000 AGXX40 KNHC 021901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 201 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. WW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N95W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION THEN TO 26N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THERE TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR NAPLES. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN AND DELINEATES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE WARM AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE W OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3 TO 5 FT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH WITHIN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY CORRIDOR TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUN. AS THIS OCCURS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST...SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO A FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG LEVELS SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NE OUT OF SW U.S. THIS WEEKEND...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS IN GENERALLY DECENT AGREEMENT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM MOBILE BAY TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN MORNING...AND FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY MON. ANOTHER STRONG HIGH AND CAA BUILDS S-SE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS SUN TO FORCE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT...AND INCREASE TO GALE WARNINGS ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS S OF 21N SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. GALE WARNINGS SUGGESTED TO BEGIN IN OROGRAPHIC FORCING OFF VERACRUZ AND THEN EXPAND S INTO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GFS PARALLEL SUGGESTING GALE WARNINGS TO 40 KT OFF OF VERACRUZ SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 9 TO 13 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND WITH PEAK OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF BUILD TO 12 TO 19 FT S OF 21N W OF 94W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. WW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO PRODUCE THE STRONGEST WIND AND WAVE EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE PAST YEAR. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED SOLID 30 KT WINDS EXTENDING AS FAR N AS 14N...WHILE 30-34 KT WINDS EXTENDED TO 13.5N. BUOY 42058 AT 15N CURRENTLY 11 FT AND ABOUT 1-2 FT LOW OF WW3. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS ALSO INDICATED SEAS IN THE 14-15 FT RANGE DIRECTLY OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N75W. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF 1027 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 31N70W THAT CONTINUES TO SLIDE E-SE AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG GRADIENT THROUGH SAT...MERGING WITH STRONGER HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND REGION. GIVEN THIS REINFORCEMENT...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND EXPAND STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH 30 KT FLOW SUGGESTED TO EXTEND N TO 17N/18N AND NOCTURNAL PEAK WINDS LIKELY REACHING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 40-45 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA SAT NIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS QUICKLY NE WHILE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SW N ATLC TO MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF STRONG TO GALE WARNING FORCE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND LARGE WAVE FIELD W OF 70W. PEAK SEAS EXPECTED 20 TO 22 FT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF COLOMBIA JET SAT MORNING AND AGAIN ON SUN MORNING. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...THE STRENGTHENING CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND CREATE PERSISTENT LONG ENE-WSW FETCH ACROSS REGION WHICH WILL BUILD SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO RANGE OF 10-12 FT IMMEDIATELY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SAT THROUGH MON...AND WRAP WESTWARD AROUND NE CARIBBEAN ARCHIPELAGO. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. WW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE HAS SHIFTED INTO EAST ATLC AS SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC FROM 27N64W TO 25N73W. REMNANTS OF THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS FLORIDA EXTEND NE AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO BEYOND 31N79W. RECENT ASCAT PASSES DEPICTED E-SE WINDS MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE AREA BETWEEN 70W-80W. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-5 FT NORTH AND EAST OF BAHAMAS...WITH 1-3 FT WITHIN GREAT BAHAMA BANK. STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH SAT WITH PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENING BETWEEN MID-ATLC RIDGE AND AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. S-SW FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO 30N SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING NORTH OF 31N MON MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT NE AND STRENGTHEN...WITH SIGNIFICANT AREAS TO 25 KT TO DEVELOP S OF 23N IN OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED ZONES N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. WINDS ACCELERATING THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG NE COAST OF CUBA COULD MAXIMIZE 25-30 KT TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-11 FT...AND LARGE AREA OF 9-11 FT SEAS IN E-NE WIND SWELL SPREADING ACROSS SE WATERS SAT THROUGH SUN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST EARLY MON...AND STALL ACROSS NE PORTIONS MON NIGHT INTO TUE FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO WED. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.