000 AGXX40 KNHC 010831 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 331 AM EST THU JAN 1 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM WEAKENING MESO LOW ALONG SE FLORIDA COAST TO NEAR 22N93W THEN TURN NW AS STATIONARY FRONT IN COMPLEX PATTERN WHERE WEAK LOW SITS OFF COAST OF BRO. COLD AIR ACROSS TEXAS YDA HAS SPILLED DOWN BACK SIDE OF LOW AND ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS TO NEAR CABO ROJO AREA...WHILE TROFFING EXTENDS FROM THE AREA SE INTO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. 03Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWED NNW WINDS 25 KT BLASTING OFF UPPER MEXICAN COAST BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT THERE...WHILE NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT PREVAILED N OF STATIONARY FRONT AND W OF 90W...WHERE SEAS ARE 6-9 FT. WW3 REASONABLE HERE EXCEPT LOW BY 2-3 FT ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS. THIS LLVL FLOW ACROSS NW GULF IS UNDERCUTTING SLY RETURN FLOW AT H85 AND PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES...PATCHY RAIN AND FOG. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOW THIS LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NNE AND STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SE OF LOW LIFTING NWD IN TANDEM AND INLAND ACROSS SE TEXAS AND LA AT 36-48 HRS. GRADIENT WINDS BOTH TO THE E AND SW OF LOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEXT 24 HOURS AS FORCING HIGH ACROSS OK AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE SHIFT EWD. 20 KT WIND LIKELY N OF WARM FRONT AND COASTAL WATERS IN NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW AS THEY LIFT N THROUGH FRI...WITH POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF 20-25 KT. ALL THIS MESS TO SHIFT NW AND INLAND ACROSS E/SE TEXAS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AND MEANDER THROUGH SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN...GENERALLY 15-20 KT...AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT NW AND N CENTRAL SECTIONS SAT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH S/W ENERGY LIFTING NE OUT OF SW U.S. THIS WEEKEND...WITH EURO MODELS STILL SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE SW OF GFS. FRONT TO MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST AND SLOWLY SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS SAT EVENING THROUGH SUN BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG HIGH AND CAA BUILDS SSE ACROSS OK AND TEXAS SUN AND FORCE STRENGTHENING NLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT...INCREASING TO GALES ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. GALES SUGGESTED TO BEGIN IN OROGRAPHIC FORCING OFF VERACRUZ AND THEN EXPAND SW PORTIONS... THEN EXPAND NNW UP THE MEXICAN COAST MON NIGHT TO 24N. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS PARALLEL FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO PRODUCE THE STRONGEST WIND AND SEA EVENT CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE PAST YEAR. 15Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES YDA SHOWED WINDS JUST BELOW GALES OFF COLOMBIA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL GALES ATTM...WITH SEAS 10-13 FT. STRONG SFC RIDGE ACROSS N GULF COAST STATES BUILDING INTO SW N ATLC WILL MAINTAIN STRONG GRADIENT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH NEW HIGH THEN PINCHING OFF JUST W OF BERMUDA AND DRIFTING SE AROUND 1028-1032 MB THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THIS TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT FURTHER AND EXPAND STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB...WITH 30 KT FLOW SUGGESTED TO EXTEND N TO 17N AND NOCTURNAL PEAK WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 KT OFF OF COLOMBIA SAT NIGHT. HIGH THEN SHIFTS QUICKLY NE WHILE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SW N ATLC TO MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND LARGE WAVE FIELD W OF 70W. PEAK SEAS EXPECTED 20 TO POSSIBLY 21 FT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF COLOMBIA JET SUN MORNING. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...THE STRENGTHENING CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND CREATE PERSISTENT LONG ENE-WSW FETCH ACROSS REGION WHICH WILL BUILD SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO RANGE OF 10-12 FT IMMEDIATELY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SAT THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES SHIFTING EASTWARD AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEING DRAGGED EWD ACROSS NE PORTIONS...WITH SECONDARY TROUGH JUST A FEW DEGREES TO THE NE TO SINK SE ACROSS NE PORTIONS NEXT 48 HRS. CURRENTLY...FRONT EXTENDS WSW ACROSS NW BAHAMAS TO WEAKENING MESO LOW ALONG SE FLORIDA COAST...WITH MICROSCALE AREA OF 20 KT ELY WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING J N OF LOW AND FRONT. E-W RIDGE ACROSS GULF COAST STATES TO BUILD EWD INTO ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS INVERTED TROFFING DEVELOPS ACROSS SE FLORIDA AND EXTENDS NNE TO OFFSHORE OF JAX. GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH AND OLD BOUNDARY DRIFTING N AS WARM FRONT TO INDUCE NARROW ZONE OF E TO SE WINDS ALONG BOUNDARY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PINCHES OFF JUST W OF BERMUDA THEN DRIFTS SE AND STRENGTHENS. WINDS AND SEAS TO BECOME FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS SRN WATERS FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS HIGH PREVAILS...WITH SIGNIFICANT AREAS TO 25 KT TO DEVELOP S OF 22N IN OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED ZONES N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. WINDS ACCELERATING THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG NE COAST OF CUBA COULD MAXIMIZE 25-30 KT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...WITH SEAS BUILDING 7-10 FT...AND LARGE AREA OF 9-11 FT SEAS IN ELY WIND SWELL SPREADING ACROSS SE WATERS SAT THROUGH SUN. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST EARLY MON...AND STALL ACROSS NW PORTIONS MON NIGHT AS BROAD WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OFF GA-SC COASTS. PREFER ECMWF AND GFS PARALLEL DURING LATTER PART OF PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI INTO MON NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.