000 AGXX40 KNHC 311922 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 222 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPOSED OF PREVIOUS GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA TO 22N93W THEN S TO 18N94W IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. RECENT ASCAT PASSES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH OCCASIONAL FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF 24N W OF 88W. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES N OF 24N W OF 92W TO 7 TO 9 FT IN THE POCKET OF STRONGEST NE WINDS. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER IN PLACE THROUGH THU MORNING WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT ALONG 24N TO THE TEXAS COAST BY FRI MORNING. GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THIS EVOLUTION BUT OVERALL WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SE TEXAS FRI NIGHT AND INTO SW LOUISIANA BY SAT MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO THEN PREVAIL FRI AS NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND PUSHED INTO FAR NW GULF...SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NE OUT OF THE DESERT SW. MODELS STILL DIFFERING IN AMOUNT OF ENERGY THAT LIFTS OUT AND TIMING...HOWEVER GENERAL IDEA MOVES ENERGY NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SAT THROUGH SUN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY SAT MORNING AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN...AND FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT. ALL MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS IN SW ZONE S OF 23N W OF 95W WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...PULSING BRIEFLY TO MINIMAL GALE WARNING FORCE OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA NOW AND AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN PERSISTING ALMOST CONTINUOUSLY OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA EARLY FRI THROUGH EARLY TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF PERSISTENT FLOW...SEAS BUILD EXTENSIVELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN DURING THIS EVENT TO 16-20 FT LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING ACROSS THE E AND NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON-TUE AND COMBINED WITH 1028- 1030 MB HIGH SHIFTING JUST SE OF BERMUDA...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THIS GRADIENT WIND. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...STRENGTHENING CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN PRES GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LONG ENE-WSW FETCH ACROSS REGION WHICH WILL BUILD SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS SECOND STRONG HIGH SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL ATLC. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO A RANGE OF 11-13 FT IMMEDIATELY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 31N60W SW TO 27N75W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR PORT EVERGLADES. EARLY MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH S-SW WINDS N OF 29N FROM 45W TO THE FRONT AND GENERALLY N-NE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT CONTINUES OFF TO THE E AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK N-S TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT THEN SHIFT N-NE THU NIGHT AND FRI...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE AREA BY SAT. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT LATE...AND EXTEND FROM 31N69W TO THE NW BAHAMAS MON NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN WITH MORE S-SW WINDS NW OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.