000 AGXX40 KNHC 310832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 332 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE GONE STATIONARY ACROSS S FLORIDA INVOF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THEN EXTENDS WSW TO NEAR 22N95W THEN S INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOW NE TO E WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY 15-20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF AREA...WITH POCKETS TO SOLID 20 KT...AND 20-25 KT OFFSHORE OF S CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE BUOY 42020 HAS BUILT TO 9 FT. WW3 IS 3 FT LOW THERE AND GENERALLY 2 FT ELSEWHERE W OF 92W...AND 1-2 FT LOW ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT. FRONT TO MEANDER IN PLACE THROUGH THU MORNING WHILE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS AT DOUBLE POINT OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU. BUT GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THIS EVOLUTION AND THEN LIFTING OF FRONT NWD THU-FRI...AND PREFER A EUROPEAN CONSENSUS ATTM...WITH WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVING NWD INTO SE TEXAS FRI NIGHT AND INTO S LA BY FRI MORNING. PARALLEL RUN OF GFS OFFERING SIMILAR SOLUTION. SLY RETURN FLOW THEN TO PREVAIL FRI AS NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN TEXAS AND PUSHED INTO FAR NW GULF...SUPPORTED BY S/W ENERGY EJECTING NE OUT OF DESERT SW OF U.S. MODELS STILL DIFFERING IN AMOUNT OF ENERGY THAT LIFTS OUT AND TIMING...AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE TRADITIONALLY HANDLED THIS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN BETTER THAN GFS. FOLLOWING THE ECMWF...FRONT TO THEN REACH FROM JUST W OF NEW ORLEANS TO TAMPICO MEXICO SAT EVENING...AND FROM APALACHICOLA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN EVENING. VERACRUZ MEXICO SUN. ALL MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR GALES W PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT S OF 25N DURING THE DAY SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: NEW PARALLEL RUN OF GFS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...PULSING BRIEFLY TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA NOW AND AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN PERSISTING ALMOST CONTINUOUSLY OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA FRI 00Z THROUGH WED BEFORE DIMINISHING. IN FACT...PARALLEL RUN OF GFS SHOWING GALES EXTENDING AS FAR N AS 14.5N SAT NIGHT...WITH 30 KT FLOW EXTENDING THEN TO JUST OFFSHORE OF HISPANIOLA. SEAS TO BUILD EXTENSIVELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN DURING THIS EVENT TO 15-18 FT LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...POSSIBLE PEAKING AT 19-20 FT OFF COLOMBIA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING ACROSS E AND NE CARIB THROUGH MON-TUE AND COMBINED WITH 1028-1030 MB HIGH SHIFTING JUST SE OF BERMUDA...WOULD SUPPORT THIS GRADIENT WIND. ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...STRENGTHENING CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN PRES GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LONG ENE-WSW FETCH ACROSS REGION WHICH WILL BUILD SWELL ACROSS TROPICS REMAINDER OF WEEK... WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS SECOND STRONG HIGH SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL ATLC...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. ATLC RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD ATTM AS COLD FRONT ACROSS NW WATERS IS SHIFTING MODESTLY SE. THE FRONT HAS JUST MOVED THROUGH BERMUDA AND EXTENDS TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA...BUT APPEARS TO BE STALLING W OF 76W...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AS ERN PORTION OF FRONT CONTINUES OFF TO THE E AND INTO CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK N-S TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF FLORIDA TONIGHT THEN SHIFT NNE THU NIGHT AND FRI AND MOVE N OF THE AREA. THIS TO DEVELOP INTO NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS NW ATLC EXTENDING WWD INTO SE U.S. EARLY SAT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE S FLOW DOMINATING AREA...AND MORE SLY N THROUGH NW OF BAHAMAS. FRONTAL SYSTEM IN GULF OF MEXICO SUN WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS EARLY MON...AND ATTM PREFER EURO SOLUTIONS FOR REASONS STATED ABOVE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.