000 AGXX40 KNHC 301816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 116 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. 1050 MB PLUS SFC HIGH ACROSS MONTANA WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT. THIS TO PUSH PORTION OF FRONT E OF 85W SE INTO W ATLC WATERS... BUT BECOME MORE E-W EAST CENTRAL GULF TO COAST OF MEXICO. PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN N OF BOUNDARY TO YIELD BROADENING ZONE OF ENE TO NE 20-25 KT WINDS 20 KT TUE NIGHT AND WED W OF 90W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 7-9 FT W OF 94W WED. FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT N AS WARM FRONT THU AS STRONG HIGH PRES WEAKENS ACROSS LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND SHIFTS E. POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN MEXICAN COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS N PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND FRI AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N INTO N GULF COASTAL ZONE AND MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS MOST OF GULF. GLOBAL MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT...REACH FROM NEW ORLEANS TO TAMPICO MEXICO SAT NIGHT...AND FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO VERACRUZ MEXICO SUN. PREFER TIMING OF ECMWF FRONTAL ARRIVAL INTO NW GULF SAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALE WARNINGS SW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT...REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS WED AND THU WITH MAX SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK EACH NIGHT AT 10-12 FT....THEN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE FRI THROUGH SUN WITH PEAK SEAS BUILDING TO 14-16 FT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS W CENTRAL ATLC. ATLC RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN NEXT FEW DAYS...PARALLEL RUN OF GFS SHOWING WINDS BRIEFLY PULSING TO GALE WARNING FORCE N OF COLOMBIA NEXT FEW NIGHTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING ACROSS E AND NE CARIB THROUGH SAT. ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...STRENGTHENING CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN PRES GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LONG ENE-WSW FETCH ACROSS REGION WHICH WILL BUILD SWELL ACROSS TROPICS REMAINDER OF WEEK... WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS SECOND STRONG HIGH SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL ATLC...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGE AXIS ALONG 28N WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ENTERS NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO PALM BEACH FLORIDA WED MORNING...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE W OF 70W THU. A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF FLORIDA FRI THEN MOVE N OF THE AREA SAT. A BRIEF SHOT OF N TO NE WINDS 20 KT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT IN NW PORTION AS HIGH BUILDS OFF E COAST...BUT PRES GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY ABATE AS HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS E OF FLORIDA COAST. SECOND HIGH BUILDING OVER W CENTRAL ATLC THIS WEEKEND WILL INCREASE PRES GRADIENT SE PORTION AND INCREASE TRADES TO AROUND 20 KT S OF 22N FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.