000 AGXX40 KNHC 291840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EST MON DEC 29 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY OBS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE NLY WINDS NW OF FRONT WITH MAX SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6-7 FT NEAR 20N95W. UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SIGNIFICANTLY TUE...ALLOWING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. INTENSE DOME OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUE WITH SLP AROUND 1055 MB WHICH REINFORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECT FRONT TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM S FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE MEXICO COAST...FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG BOUNDARY THU-THU NIGHT THEN NE INTO LOUISIANA FRI-SAT. NE WINDS WILL FRESHEN N OF BOUNDARY TUE NIGHT AND WED AS FRONT SINKS SE... PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW PORTIONS. POSSIBLE BRIEF WINDOW FOR N WINDS TO REACH 30 KT W OF LOW WED NIGHT. BROAD AREA OF E-NE 25 KT WINDS E OF TROUGH. MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF CUT OFF LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND APPROACHING WRN TEXAS THU-SAT AND THUS CONFIDENCE IMPROVING FOR LATE PART OF FCST PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LARGE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 29N ACROSS W CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO FLORIDA PENINSULA. PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-80W BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. NOCTURNAL MAX PULSING TO AROUND 30 KT CONTINUES WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH GALE FORCE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. MAX SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK EACH NIGHT 10-12 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE E OF 82W WITH TYPICAL SEAS. LARGE LONG PERIOD NE SWELL OBSERVED TROPICAL N ATLC PAST 24 HOURS WILL QUICKLY FADE TONIGHT. FRESH TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT E OF WINDWARDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS THE MID-ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS. PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CARIB EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THU- SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OF SE U.S. AND INTO SW N ATLC...AND SHOULD BRING NOCTURNAL GALES OFF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE ALONG 29N EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE WED MORNING FROM 28N65W TO PALM BEACH FLORIDA THU...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE FRI AS SW PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NW BAHAMAS AND BECOMES ILL DEFINED...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS E OF FLORIDA. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES E INTO SW N ATLC...STRENGTHENING TRADES IN SOUTHERN PORTION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT TO SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.