000 AGXX40 KNHC 290814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 314 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WWD ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO ERN GULF NEAR 24N89W EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NW HALF OF BASIN...PRESENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN FL PANHANDLE TO NEAR 26.5N91W TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 95W. NLY WINDS 20-30 KT EARLY TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT PER RECENT ASCAT PASSES EXCEPT FOR 20-25 KT OFF OF VERACRUZ. PEAK SEAS STILL 7-9 FT BEHIND FRONT S OF 26N PER RECENT BUOY OBS....WHILE MILD SE TO S FLOW E OF THE FRONT IS YIELDING SEAS 2-4 FT. LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NNE ACROSS WRN ATLC FORCING S/W SUPPORTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY UP AND OVER RIDGE...WITH N PORTION OF FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NE PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY TUE...WHILE SW PORTIONS MEANDER ACROSS WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN SIGNIFICANTLY TUE AND ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE U.S. EXTENDING S INTO NRN GULF...WHILE STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING INTO GREAT PLAINS FORCES FRONT MORE SE AND ACROSS N HALF OF GULF BY TUE EVENING...ROUGHLY EXTENDING FROM S FL NEAR THE LAKE TO SW GULF ALONG 96.5W WHERE COASTAL TROUGH WILL THEN SET UP NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST A WAVE OR COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG E COAST OF FL LATE WED THROUGH THU...AND ILL DEFINED FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH REMAINDER OF PENINSULA AND TO THE KEYS EXTENDING WWD ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT N IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WRN GULF COASTAL TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS. LOW FORECAST TO LIFT NWD ALONG BOUNDARY THU-THU NIGHT AND THEN NE INTO LOUISIANA FRI-SAT. WEAK COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SLOWLY INTO NW PORTIONS SAT AS THIS OCCURS. NE TO E WINDS TO FRESHEN N OF BOUNDARY LATE TUE-WED AS FRONT SINKS SE ACROSS FL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW PORTIONS...THEN BRIEF WINDOW FOR NLY WINDS TO 30 KT W OF LOW AND TROUGHING ACROSS W PORTIONS WED NIGHT...AND BROAD AREA OF ENE 25 KT TO E OF TROUGH NW PORTIONS. MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF CUT OFF LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND APPROACHING WRN TEXAS THU-SAT AND THUS CONFIDENCE IMPROVING FOR LATTER PART OF FCST PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 29-30N ACROSS W CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING MODESTLY ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO ERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND YIELDING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB FOR AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W ATTM. NOCTURNAL MAX PULSING TO AROUND 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA...AND COULD BRIEFLY REACH NEAR GALE FORCE NEXT FEW NIGHT. MAX SEAS THERE EXPECTED TO PEAK EACH NIGHT 10-11 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES GENERALLY PREVAIL ELSEWHERE E OF 82W WITH TYPICAL SEAS. STRONG LONG PERIOD NE SWELL IMPACTING REGIONAL ATLC PAST 24 HOURS AND BLEEDING THROUGH CARIB PASSAGES WILL FADE QUICKLY STARTING LATER TODAY. E OF THE ISLANDS...MODERATE TRADES 15 TO 20 KT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT OR GREATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS ATLC RIDGE REALIGNS. PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CARIB TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AS ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT E...BUT GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THU-FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OF SE U.S. AND INTO SW N ATLC...AND MAY ALLOW FOR NOCTURNAL GALES OFF COLOMBIA WED THROUGH FRI NIGHTS...AND MOST LIKELY FRI NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SNAKES ACROSS THE ATLC FROM CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N45.4W TO JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE N ALONG 29-30N EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT 15-20 KT S OF 22N...AND RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING 20 KT THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE. WAVE MODELS A FEW FEET TO LOW SE PORTIONS WITH THE LONG PERIOD NE SWELL PREVAILING...WITH BUOY 41043 STILL AT 8 FT. THIS SWELL TO GRADUALLY FADE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW 10-15 KT N AND NW OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...WITH E PORTION CONTINUING SE THROUGH THU...REACHING NEAR 27N65W...WHILE SW PORTIONS OF THE FRONT STALL ACROSS EXTREME S FL AND NW BAHAMAS AND BECOME ILL DEFINED AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF E COAST OF FLORIDA. PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN BEHIND FRONT LATE THU-FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES E INTO SW N ATLC AND TRADES FRESHEN S OF 24N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.