000 AGXX40 KNHC 280605 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A NE-SW RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS RETRACTING E AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE SE TX COAST TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT 21N97W CONTINUES EASTWARD. SCT RW/ISOL TS IN WEATHER GRIDS AS WELL AS PATCH FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY 20-25 KT...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22-26N DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. THESE NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. STILL EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE...WITH REMNANTS OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DISSIPATING THROUGH WED. MOISTURE GUIDANCE HOLDS ONTO THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL DRIFT W AND WEAKEN TO A NE-SE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF ON WED...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT. BY THEN THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE NE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON TUE NIGHT INCREASING TO NE 20-25 KT OVER THE NW GULF ON WED. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND MEXICO ON THU NIGHT AS 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF ON FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN NE 25-30 KT CONDITIONS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH WED NIGHT SURROUNDED BY NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM 10-18N BETWEEN 70- 83W. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX EARLY THIS WEEK INTO MID WEEK WITH THIS SURROUNDING AREA SHRINKING TO THE S OF 16N BETWEEN 72-80W ON TUE-THU. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A MUCH LARGER AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS OVER THE WATERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 73-79W ON THU NIGHT...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. A SMALL AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SE COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. NE SWELLS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF 68W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 KT REACHING THE NE AND E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE NE SWELL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE S ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS REACHING THE N COAST OF S AMERICA BETWEEN 55-62W TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING FROM 20N55W TO 22N72W TO 27N76W. THE REMNANTS WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N63W TODAY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO CENTRAL FL. NE-E 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N E OF 70W AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUE. EXPECT SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT FLOW N OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXITING THE SE COAST CONUS ON MON NIGHT. THE FRONT REACH A LINE FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WED WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STALLING FROM 27N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THU AND DISSIPATING ON FRI. EXPECT ONLY NORTHERLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.