000 AGXX40 KNHC 261630 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 AND TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RETURN FLOW IS AT THE ADVISORY LEVEL OF 20-25 KT IN THE NW GULF ACCORDING TO MULTIPLE PLATFORM REPORTS IN THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH ARE ELEVATED. SEAS TO 9 FT WERE REPORTED AT BUOY 42019 AS RECENTLY AS 1600Z. THESE CONDITIONS ARE STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY EITHER THE 12Z GFS OR 00Z ECMWF OR THEIR CORRESPONDING WAVE MODELS DESPITE BOTH MODELS TRENDING STRONGER HERE. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO MATCH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF WINDS AND SEAS. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE NE GULF TO THE SW GULF AND TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS DRIVING THESE WINDS...BUT THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AND WEAKEN BY TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE SAT...WITH BOTH MODELS NOW SHOWING 25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUN MORNING AND BRIEFLY INCREASING WINDS TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ SUN AFTERNOON. BY MON...THE GFS BECOMES THE STRONGER AND SLOWER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND FITS BEST WITH THE TREND IN BOTH MODELS. THE GFS WAS RELIED ON MORE HEAVILY MON-WED. THE NWPS NEEDS TO CATCH UP TO THIS NEWLY FAVORED STRONGER SOLUTION...SO THE MWW3 WAS THROWN INTO THE BLEND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE PREFERRED WIND SOLUTION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE MWW3 ALSO USED IN THE BLEND IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL DRIVE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON WED. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE FARTHER N IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD N OF THE AREA. AS THE HIGH MOVES E...THE AREA OF WINDS AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SHRINK. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE AND GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE IT SHOWS 30 KT EVERY MORNING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 1230Z ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS AS HIGH AS 14.5 FT DOWNWIND OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS IS WITHIN A FOOT OF THE NWPS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE SWELL WILL BRING SEAS OVER 8 FT TO N WATERS TONIGHT AND SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE HERE. THE NWPS IS STILL SPINNING UP THE SWELL OVER THE ATLC BASIN AND APPEARS LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ON DAY 1-2. RELIED MORE ON THE MWW3 ON THOSE DAYS FOR WAVES. THE MWW3 AND NWPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SEAS HOVERING IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE INTO MON AND TUE AND SUBSIDING FURTHER ON WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS AND MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT LIES FROM 31N62W TO 27N74W THEN IS STATIONARY THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. THE 1332Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED SW WINDS TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 30N...STRONGER THAN WHAT WAS PREDICTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF OR 06Z GFS. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND LOOKS MORE REASONABLE HERE IN THE SHORT RANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS PASSING OVER AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND IS BEGINNING TO DIP SOUTHEASTWARD...CLIPPING THE NE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE WEAKENING. THE 12Z GFS SEEMS REASONABLE HERE. NE SWELL OVER 8 FT CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NE CORNER WILL SPREAD SW... REACHING PUERTO RICO SAT AND THE SE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. THE MWW3 AND NWPS BOTH LOOK REASONABLE HERE. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE GFS...CARRYING THE FRONT OFFSHORE MON AROUND SUNSET VERSUS AROUND SUNRISE TUE. THE TREND IN BOTH MODELS IS FOR A STRONGER AND SLOWER SOLUTION. SINCE THE GFS IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC...WILL ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE WANES FROM LATE MON ONWARD. THE NWPS IS STILL SPINNING UP THE SWELL OVER THE ATLC BASIN AND APPEARS LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ON DAY 1-2. RELIED MORE ON THE MWW3 ON THOSE DAYS FOR WAVES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.