000 AGXX40 KNHC 251924 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1154 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED SE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. A 1400 UTC ALTIMETER PASS SHOWS SEAS AS HIGH AS 11 FT PERSIST NEAR 19N94W. THE MMW3 AND NWPS WERE FASTER TO BRING THE SEAS DOWN HERE...SO ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS. SAME IS TRUE FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SURROUNDING AREA WHERE NW SWELL COUNTER TO THE CURRENT WILL KEEP SEAS HIGHER THAN PREDICTED. SHIP 9HJD9 REPORTED 10 FT SEAS NEAR 22N85W...2-3 FT HIGHER THAN THE MWW3. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO THE ADVISORY LEVEL OF 20-25 KT IN THE NW GULF THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AND WEAKEN THE GRADIENT BY FRI AFTERNOON. BEYOND FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME SLIGHTLY DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO LATE SAT...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WEAK FRONT. THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHIP 3FPS9 REPORTED 24 KT N-NW WINDS NEAR 20N87W AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. SINCE THAT TIME...THE COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS HAS EDGED E OF BUOY 42056 WHERE THE WIND INCREASED FROM 5 KT TO 19 KT BETWEEN 1400 UTC AND 1500 UTC. WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY EVENING AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND STALLS. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE FARTHER N IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD N OF THE AREA. AS THE HIGH MOVES E...THE AREA OF WINDS AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SHRINK. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE AND GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE SWELL WILL BRING SEAS OVER 8 FT TO N WATERS FRI NIGHT AND SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE HERE. THE MWW3 AND NWPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SEAS HOVERING IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE INTO MON AND TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT 1200 UTC...SHIPS C6BH8 REPORTED 23 KT NEAR 28N76W AND SHIP A8IN7 SAW 25 KT NEAR 30N74W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM 31N76W THROUGH GRAND BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR THIS FRONT IS LIFTING NE OF THE AREA...AND WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT WILL PASS OVER AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND THEN DIP SOUTHEASTWARD...CLIPPING THE NE PORTION OF THIS AREA LATE FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE WEAKENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT WILL AGAIN SPUR WINDS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE OVERALL. NE SWELL OVER 8 FT CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NE CORNER WILL SPREAD SW... REACHING PUERTO RICO SAT AND THE SE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. THE MWW3 AND NWPS BOTH LOOK REASONABLE HERE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.