000 AGXX40 KNHC 250744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 244 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW-MEDIUM. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N85W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...HOWEVER WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND HAVE SINCE LIKELY BECOMING 20 KT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS ARE UP TO 8-12 FT S OF A LINE FROM 29N86W TO 29N89W TO 20N96W WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP IN THE NW GULF INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BY LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW GULF. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT FRONT...APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN WITH THIS FRONT WITH THE LATEST GFS STALLING THE FRONT IN THE FAR NW GULF THROUGH MON MORNING...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF HAS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT THE SAME TIME. THE LATEST UKMET HAS THE FRONT ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF POSITIONS. THUS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND NEAR GALE WARNING FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION... EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 12-13 FT NEAR THE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS STILL APPEAR TO BE THE STRONGEST TONIGHT/THU NIGHT WITH THE PAST SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS NW OF COLOMBIA. THUS A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 00 UTC FRI THROUGH 18 UTC FRI AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO UP TO 15 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT FOR A SET OF NE SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE FROM N-S ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING FRI NIGHT...PEAKING AT 10 FT NEAR 19N55W SAT AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SHEAR LINE AS IT DROPS S OF 19N LATE SAT NIGHT...REACHING ALL THE WAY TO 15N BY MON MORNING WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF ENTERING THE FAR NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N88W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HUG THE YUCATAN COAST UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THEY WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND STALLS FROM 22N83W TO 20N85W TO 16N87W... GRADUALLY WASHING OUT THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 8 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND MAY GUST TO 30 KT THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS ATLC HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL NE OF THE AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE FAR NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM 31N79.5W TO 28N80.5W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALONG WITH NEARBY BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF 29N BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALSO N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT TO 76W. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS PERSISTING WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GULF STREAM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING PRESENT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 28N65W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GENTLE RETURN FLOW IS OCCURRING N OF 25N E OF 70W ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW AND 4-6 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT QUICKLY REACHES FROM 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY FRI MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NW BEHIND IT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS E OF 70W BEGINNING LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 10 FT ALONG 65W...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH MON NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.