000 AGXX40 KNHC 242012 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 312 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AFTER TONIGHT.HIGH HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH NEXT COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 25N86W TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. RECENT ASCAT DATA AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT S OF 23N. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO NEAR GALE WARNING FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N BETWEEN E OF THE FRONT TO 84W WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO 8-11 FT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT REMAIN IN THE SW ZONE TILL ABOUT 00Z. MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TONIGHT...FROM NEAR NAPLES TO WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA LAT TONIGHT...AND TO E OF THE GULF DURING THU. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE WATERS AFFECTED BY THE GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT NE TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP IN THE NW GULF INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BY LATE THU NIGHT. THESE WINDS DIMINISH FRI THROUGH SAT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW GULF. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT FRONT...AND WILL APPROACH THE SE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE 12 GFS NOW ADVANCES THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW VERSUS THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE 12 UTC ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLN AS WELL AS TO THE UKMET WITH THE UKMET BEING A TAD SLOWER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MODERATE NLY BEHIND IT WITH A BRIEF INSTANCE OF MODERATE N FETCH OFF S TEXAS AND E CENTRAL MEXICO SUN INTO MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS LATEST TAFB-NWPS/12 UTC MWW3 BLEND INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND NEAR GALE WARNING FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 12-13 FT NEAR THE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE STRONGEST THU NIGHT WITH THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS RUN SHOWING A SMALL POCKET OF MINIMAL GALE WARNING FORCE NW OF COLOMBIA FOR 6 HOURS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A BRIEF GALE WARNING BECOMES WARRANTED. IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED...EXCEPT FOR A SET OF NE SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE FROM N-S ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING FRI NIGHT...PEAKING AT 10 FT NEAR 19N55W SAT AFTERNOON. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOW THAT THE EARLIER FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE-S WINDS THERE HAVE DIMINISHED TO MODERATE LEVELS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND STALL FROM FAR WESTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS BY THU MORNING...AND DISSIPATE FRI MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGES ON MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS LATEST TAFB-NWPS/12 UTC MWW3 BLEND INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N ATLC SW TO S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ASCAT AND BUOY DATA SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG S WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AND SQUALL LINE. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 2-4 FT SEAS SW OF THE BAHAMAS AND 6-8 FT SEAS IN THE NW PORTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS ON QUE TO ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION BY 06 UTC THU WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH-STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND IT N OF 29N. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AS IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N70W TO 27N75W TO 23N80W THU NIGHT...MOVING E OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD JUST N OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT...REACHING BERMUDA BY SUN MORNING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRI THROUGH SAT...WITH RETURN FLOW BACK SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT IN...WHILE THE NAVGEM AND UKMET TEND TO HOLD BACK ON THIS SCENARIO. THE FRONT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE WEAK RIGHT NOW. OTHERWISE...A SET OF NE SWELL WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN OFFSHORES FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 10 FT ALONG 65W SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...DECAYING SUN EXCEPT FOR A SWATH OF 8 FT SEAS LINGERING IN THE FAR SE WATERS.. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017..W CENTRAL GULF... GALE WARNING THROUGH 21Z. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING THROUGH 22Z. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING THROUGH 00Z.. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE WARNING THROUGH 22Z. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.