000 AGXX40 KNHC 240719 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 219 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN LOW-MEDIUM. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N90W TO 26N91W TO 22N94W TO 19N96.5W. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 30-35 KT W OF THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO 14 FT BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 25N96W. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 23N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO 8-11 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD S AND SE SEEPING JUST INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF/GMZ019 ZONE AND THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ZONE/GMZ025 THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM 29N83W TO 25N84W TO 21.5N87W BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FROM 26N81W TO 22N85W BY 06 UTC THU...MOVING E OF THE BASIN THU AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL GREATLY IMPROVE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY THU AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MOVING E INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA THU EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP IN THE NW GULF INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BY LATE THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE ATLC FRI ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF THE GULF BY SAT MORNING WHILE DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT...MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE SE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE STALLS THE FRONT IN THE FAR NW GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE DOES NOT MOVE THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF TEXAS UNTIL SAT EVENING...STALLS THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON... THEN IS PROGRESSIVE AND QUICKLY MOVES THE FRONT EASTWARD SUN NIGHT. THUS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LAST FORECAST PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND NEAR GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 12-13 FT NEAR THE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE STRONGEST THU NIGHT WITH THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS RUN SHOWING A SMALL POCKET OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE NW OF COLOMBIA FOR 6 HOURS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A BRIEF GALE WARNING BECOMES WARRANTED. IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED...EXCEPT FOR A SET OF NE SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE FROM N-S ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING FRI NIGHT...PEAKING AT 10 FT NEAR 19N55W SAT AFTERNOON. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOWS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE-S WINDS AROUND THE ATLC RIDGING AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT FRONT WILL SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN BY 06 UTC THU WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND STALL FROM FAR WESTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS BY THU MORNING...DISSIPATING BY FRI MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N64W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W-NW TO SAVANNAH GEORGIA. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE-S WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN... EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG N OF THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT CLOSEST TO THE HIGH CENTER IN THE NE PORTION...AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE LEE OF THE BAHAMAS. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AROUND SUNRISE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION BY 06 UTC THU WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH-STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND IT N OF 29N. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM 30N70W TO 27N75W TO 23N80W THU NIGHT...MOVING E-SE OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD JUST N OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT...REACHING BERMUDA BY SUN MORNING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRI THROUGH SAT...WITH RETURN FLOW BACK SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE...A SET OF NE SWELL WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN OFFSHORES FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 10 FT ALONG 65W SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...DECAYING SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.