000 AGXX40 KNHC 230702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 202 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS INDICATING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN/SE-S FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT N OF 25N AND 1-3 FT S OF 25N. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF TODAY...MOVING INTO THE TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 94W...AND GALE FORCE WINDS MAY MANAGE TO BLEED INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE GMZ019/CENTRAL GULF AND ZONE GMZ025/E BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO W OF 94W. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO THIS EVENING... FROM MOBILE BAY TO 18N94W WED MORNING...FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED EVENING...PUSHING SE OF THE GULF BY THU MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00 UTC THU...WITH WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU AFTERNOON. RESULTANT SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THU EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM W TO E... BECOMING LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY THU EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN GULF. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF SAT WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW PORTION BY LATE SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGING DOMINATES N OF THE BASIN WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. TRADE WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 KT LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...CONTINUING TO PULSE TO 30 KT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS. SEAS OF 7-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL BUILD TO UP TO 12-13 FT NEAR THE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT...SPREADING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TOWARD 82W BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 5-8 FT SEAS PREVAIL AND WILL CONTINUE ...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO MODERATE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THERE. A BATCH OF N-NE SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-10 FT N OF 10N THROUGH SAT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE RETURN FLOW IS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND THE RIDGING. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT TONIGHT INTO WED. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE YUCATAN WED EVENING WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND IT WED NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR MOSAICS SHOW A BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OFFSHORE NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. OTHERWISE ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN/SE-S FLOW. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 4-6 FT...EXCEPT 1-3 FT INSIDE/W OF THE BAHAMAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRIEFLY FORM IN THE NE CORNER NEAR 30N65W THROUGH THE DAY...DISSIPATING BY TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW WATERS THIS EVENING WITH RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF OF THE SE GEORGIA/ NE FLORIDA COAST WED EVENING WITH BRIEF W-NW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT N OF 29N. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT QUICKLY REACHES FROM 31N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THU EVENING...THEN FROM 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI MORNING...SLOWLY SINKING S AND DISSIPATING THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS EXPECTED BASIN-WIDE BY SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. N-NE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS E OF 70W FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT UP TO 10 FT ALONG 65W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.