000 AGXX40 KNHC 170759 MIMATS AGXX40 KNHC DDHHMM MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA SW TO 26N90W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND NE MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. LATEST BUOY AND PARTIAL ASCAT DATA SHOW GENTLE NE-E WINDS SE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE PRESENT AS ALSO SEEN IN A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS. NW OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE GENERALLY NE-E AT 10-15 KT. THE LATEST AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOYS REVEAL RELATIVELY LOW SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF 4-5 FT SEAS IN THE WESTERN GULF FROM 25N TO 28N W OF 92W...AND 3-4 FT SEAS N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-88W. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES FROM SW FLORIDA TO 26N92W TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS LOW PRES FORMS OVER SE TEXAS. WEAK HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP NLY WINDS IN THE GENTLE RANGE WITH LOW SEAS THROUGH EARLY FRI. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND FORECAST POSITIONS WITH NEXT LOW PRES/COLD FRONT SYSTEM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GULF BEGINNING FRI. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S WILL SHIFT EASTERN TEXAS THU NIGHT AND FRI AND HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG OR JUST INLAND THE NE TEXAS COAST FRI. THIS LOW PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY TRACK NEWD DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT...TO A POSITION FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT NIGHT...AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO 26N87W AND STATIONARY TO THE SW GULF ON SUN. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE MODELS NOTED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS WITH THE WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY ON SAT. MOST MODELS AGREE WITH NLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF AND UKMET DEPICTING WINDS OF 20 KT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS A RANGE OF 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THOSE TIME PERIODS AS IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT HIGH PRES IN PLACE...AND ALONG WITH THE LOW PRES TAKING MORE OF TRACK FARTHER S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS THE RESULTANT PRES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THESE WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW RACES NE FAR AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AS WELL. THE SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT WILL BE UNFAVORABLE AT THAT TIME TO SUPPORT A SUSTAINABLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO WILL FORECAST THE FRONT AS STATED EARLIER. EXPECT SE RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI BEFORE IT DIMINISHES WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. SEAS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK UP TO 6 FT... FT...POSSIBLY TO 7 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF NEAR THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI AND SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SE TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THE INDUCED PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEN SOME SINCE YESTERDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF N 20-25 KT WINDS W OF 82W FROM ABOUT 11N TO 15N PER LATEST ASCAT PASS WITH SEAS THERE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE SAME ASCAT PASS FROM 0318 SHOWED HINTED AT A SWATH OF NE 20 KT FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 82W. THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN JUST ENOUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR THE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO DIMINISH...HOWEVER THE NE 20 KT WINDS 15N-19N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 82W SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR GENTLE SE-S WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N55W SW TO GUADELOUPE AND W TO ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIOANRY TO NEAR 18N75W. SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE PER CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THESE SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THAT SIMILAR RANGE DURING THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND WITH 0000 UTC MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N76W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD. BOTH BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR 6-8 FT SEAS IN NW SWELLS N OF 25N E OF 68W. LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH SEVERAL RECENT ASCAT PASSES ARE NOTING...AND RECENTLY REVEALED GENTLE SE-S WINDS TO THE SE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND FRONT AND GENTLE N-NE WINDS E OF 72W...AND GENTLE W- NW WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS. NE-E MODERATE WINDS ARE S OF 23N E OF 76W. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT...AND PRECEDED BY A SMALL AREA OF SW 15-20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 4-6 FT. THESE WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH WED THROUGH FRI AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WHILE WEAKENING WITH WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF IT DIMINISHING AND SEAS LOWERING TO 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS AND 1-2 FT SEAS SW OF THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THIS NEXT FRONT INTO SAT NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.