000 AGXX40 KNHC 160817 CCA MIMATS AGXX40 KNHC DDHHMM MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 CORRECTED SW N ATLC SECTION MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN BLEND OF ECMWF WITH OFFICIAL THEREAFTER. USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU NIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS ALONG WITH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THE COLD FRONT JUST HAVING MOVED INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF ...EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO INLAND SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. A 1021 HIGH CENTER IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 25N92W. LATEST BUOYS...OIL RIG PLATFORMS AND AVAILABLE PARTIAL ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE SE-S WINDS SE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE WATERS AND VICINITY YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE NE OF 15 KT ARE NOTED PER A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS. NW OF FRONT...WINDS HAVE BECOME N-NE AT 15-20 KT. THE LATEST AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOYS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ALTIMETER PASSES REVEAL RELATIVELY LOW SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE S OF THE FRONT...AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT NW OF THE FRONT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY WED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO 26N91W...THEN BECOME STATIONARY TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N89W...STATIONARY TO 26N93W AND WARM FRONT TO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY WED MORNING. THE WARM FRONT SEGMENT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY PORTIONS BECOME DIFFUSE AS STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. RATHER WEAK HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP NLY WINDS IN THE GENTLE RANGE WITH LOW SEAS THROUGH THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRI...AND QUICKLY REACH FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF BY LATE SAT. THERE ARE MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO SPEED AND AND STRENGTH OF WINDS WITH THE FRONT AFTER FRI MORNING AS IT ADVANCE EASTWARD. BOTH GFS AND ITS MEAN ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH WINDS LATE FRI THROUGH SAT AS THE PARENT LOW OF THE COLD FRONT IS DEPICTED WEAKER AS WELL ALONG 32N FRI THROUGH SAT...HOWEVER THIS POSITION IS FARTHER S THAN INDICATED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF/UKMET AND NAVGEM ARE A BIT FARTHER S WITH THE PARENT LOW FRI THROUGH SAT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE FARTHER S OF THE SOLNS CARRYING THE LOW FROM NE TEXAS ON FRI ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...AND TO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY SAT NIGHT. IN ADDITION WITH BEING LIGHTER WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WINDS...THE GFS SOLN IS ALSO NOTED TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE GULF AFTER SAT MORNING. WILL USE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND IN THE NDFD GRIDS FOR PERIODS FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. MOST LIKELY FUTURE GRIDS WILL REQUIRE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS FOR THESE SAME PERIODS ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT SE RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BEGINNING LATE WED...AND INTO LATE THU BEFORE DIMINISHING FRI WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. SEAS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK UP TO 5 FT...POSSIBLY TO 7 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF NEAR THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI AND SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA. THE INDUCED PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THE N 20-25 KT WINDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS E TO 82W HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT THERE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR GENTLE SE-S WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHER TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 22N5W SW TO ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE FAR NW AND FAR NE CARIBBEAN SECTIONS. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE PER CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THESE SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THAT SIMILAR RANGE DURING THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND WITH 0000 UTC MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FRACTURED BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN ABOUT 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BOTH BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR 6-8 FT SEAS IN NW SWELLS N OF 25N E OF 68W. LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH SEVERAL RECENT ASCAT PASSES ARE NOTING...AND RECENTLY REVEALED GENTLE SE-S WINDS TO THE SE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND FRONT AND GENTLE N-NE WINDS E OF 72W...AND GENTLE W- NW WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS. NE-E MODERATE WINDS ARE S OF 23N E OF 76W. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A REMNANT TROUGH TONIGHT AND WED. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE HIGH PRES CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THU...BUT WEAKEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE BASIN TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT...AND PRECEDED BY A SMALL AREA OF SW 15-20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 4-6 FT. THESE WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH WED THROUGH FRI AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WHILE WEAKENING WITH WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF IT DIMINISHING AND SEAS LOWERING TO 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS AND 1-2 FT SEAS SW OF THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THIS NEXT FRONT INTO SAT NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.