000 AGXX40 KNHC 140737 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 237 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST BUOYS...OIL RIG PLATFORMS AND AVAILABLE PARTIAL ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE N-NE WINDS E OF 90W...WITH HIGHER WINDS NE IN THE MODERATE RANGE S OF 24N E OF 87W. W OF 90W...THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW RETURN SE FLOW CONSISTING OF MODERATE INTENSITY WINDS. THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOYS REVEAL RELATIVELY LOW SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE... EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF 3-4 FT SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE AND CENTRAL GULF. SIMILAR SEAS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF. THE LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTER OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SSE TO NEAR 25N89W. THIS FEATURE PRESENTLY DOMINATES THE GULF. MODELS CONSENSUS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING...AND AS LOW PRES ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODERATE RETURN SLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY ON MON AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS LATE MON AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL POSITIONS ACROSS THE GULF. WILL MAKE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES TO FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE FRONT FOR THIS FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL BE FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 26N89W AND STATIONARY TO FAR S TEXAS TUE. ON WED...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT...WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION WEAKENS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND W CENTRAL FLORIDA AREA AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA N OF THE FRONT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING RATHER GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS N OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE INTO WED. ON THU...THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD TO THE FAR EASTERN GULF...WITH MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW HAVING SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND SEAS BUILDING THERE TO AROUND 5-6 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT IS BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS TO THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS E TO 82W. THE DURATION OF THESE WINDS HAS ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7 FT THERE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING MOSTLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN. SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 3-4 FT E OF 69W...AND 1-3 FT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION. WAVEHEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WERE VERIFIED NICELY BY RECENT ALTIMETER DATA THAT MATCH THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS THERE. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC HAVE SUBSIDED TO 6-7 FT IN NE SWELLS. THESE SWELLS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...AND THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST BY WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE TO LOWER TO 4-5 FT BY MON NIGHT WITH SOME POCKETS OF 5-6 FT SEAS. THE MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH MON AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRES TROUGHING ALONG 80W/81W SLACKENS. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND WITH 0000 UTC MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 28N65W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EVIDENT JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 31N67W WHILE A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG A POSITION FROM 25N65W SW TO THE NW COAST OF HAITI. ELSEWHERE...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING EASTWARD IS NW OF THE FRONT...AND A WEAK PRES PATTERN IS NOTED TO THE SE OF THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AMPLE CLOUDINESS MAINLY AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO THE E OF THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 25N E OF 70W. BOTH BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS DUE TO SUBSIDING NE SWELLS. LOWER SEAS OF 3-4 FT ARE N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 78W...AND 1-2 FT SEAS SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH SEVERAL RECENT ASCAT PASSES ARE NOTING...AND RECENTLY REVEALED GENTLE SE-S WINDS TO THE SE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND FRONT AND GENTLE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE NW FLOW N OF 28N E OF 70W WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY REACH THE FAR SE WATERS TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING...AND BECOMING STATIONARY. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE GENTLE RANGE WITH MODERATE NE WINDS EXPECTED PERIODICALLY BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA MON THROUGH THU. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT OVER THE SE PORTION LATE WED AND THU. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE BASIN THROUGH THU...BUT WEAKEN AS THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE FAR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WED AND THU. NLY WINDS BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO BE IN THE GENTLE RANGE WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.