000 AGXX40 KNHC 130741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST BUOYS...OIL RIG PLATFORMS AND AVAILABLE PARTIAL ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF N OF 27N W OF 94W...AND GENTLE E WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. MOSTLY GENTLE NLY WINDS ARE E OF 90W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE NE-E WINDS NOTED S OF 24N. THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOYS REVEAL RELATIVELY LOW SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF 3-4 FT SEAS OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN 87W-92W. THE LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRES CENTER OF 1026 MB LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH A STRONG RIDGE REACHING SE TO THE SE GULF...AND ANOTHER ONE SW TO NE MEXICO. THIS FEATURE PRESENTLY DOMINATES THE GULF...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUN INTO MON WHILE WEAKENING AS LOW PRES ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR SLY WIND FLOW TO BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY MON AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS LATE MON AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO S TEXAS BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG REGION TO EXTREME S TEXAS BY TUE NIGHT. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IS EXPECTED TO STALL MON THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH THE EXTREME WESTERN SEGMENT LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL. MODEST HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA N OF THE FRONT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING RATHER GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS N OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED BLEND OF 0000 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT IS BRINGING MODERATE NLY WINDS TO THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND 81W. THE DURATION OF THESE WINDS HAS ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7 FT THERE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING MOSTLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W.THESE SEAS WERE VERIFIED NICELY BY RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES. DISSIPATING SWELL ENERGY OVER IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC IS ALLOWING FOR SEAS THERE TO CONTINUE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND WITH SEAS NOW IN THE RANGE OF 7-9 FT VERSUS THE 10-12 FT RANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS HIGHLIGHTED THESE WAVE HEIGHTS. THESE SEAS WILL LOWER EVEN MORE TO THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT TONIGHT...TO 5-6 FT SUN AND TO 4-5 FT MON THROUGH WED EXCEPT FOR 5-6 FT S OF ABOUT 13N. ALTHOUGH NO COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS ...FRESH NE-E WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODERATE NLY WINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY MATERIALIZE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN BEGIN TO PULSE BEGINNING MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND WITH 0000 UTC MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC ANALYSIS HAS THE REMNANT OF AN OLD BOUNDARY DEPICTED AS A TROUGH FROM 24N65W TO EASTERN CUBA. THE ANALYSIS ALSO HAS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N66W SW TO JUST NE OF WEST PALM BEACH. THE ANALYSIS HAS STRONG HIGH PRES ANALYZED TO THE W OF AND NW OF THE TROUGH...AND WEAKER HIGH PRES TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH. BOTH BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS DUE TO NE SWELLS...AND LOWER SEAS OF 4-5 FT N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 78W...AND 1-3 FT SEAS SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH SEVERAL RECENT ASCAT PASSES ARE NOTING...AND RECENTLY REVEALED MAINLY GENTLE NE-E TO THE E OF THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS...AND MODERATE NE WINDS TO THE SE OF THE BAHAMAS E TO 70W...AND INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SWATH OF MODERATE NW WINDS WAS CAPTURED IN THE ASCAT DATA OVER THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS N OF ABOUT 30N E OF 75W THE NE SWELLS E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL GRADUALLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL EASTERN WATERS THROUGH SUN EVENING AT WHICH TIME IT WILL BE WEAKENING FROM 24N65W TO 22N71W AND AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT SW TO E CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH PRES BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ON THE STRONG SIDE PER CONSENSUS OF MODELS...SO NLY WINDS THAT FOLLOW THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE WITH SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 4-6 FT...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF 5-7 FT SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS SUBSIDING TO 4-5 FT LATE ON MON AND TO 3-4 FT TUE AND WED...EXCEPT FOR 4-5 FT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.