000 AGXX40 KNHC 120737 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 237 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND WITH 0000 UTC MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST BUOYS...OIL RIG PLATFORMS AND AVAILABLE PARTIAL ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF N OF 27N W OF 94W...AND GENTLE E WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. MOSTLY GENTLE NLY WINDS ARE E OF 90W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE NE-E WINDS NOTED S OF 24N. THE OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS AND AN ALTIMETER PASS REVEAL SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 2-3 FT N OF 27N W OF 90W...ALSO N OF 29N E OF 90W...AND OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF. THE LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED OVER SE LOUISIANA WITH A STRONG RIDGE REACHING SSE TO NEAR 26N89W. THIS FEATURE PRESENTLY DOMINATES THE GULF...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODELS ARE THEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUN THROUGH MON AS LOW PRES ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS TAKING PLACE...SLY WIND FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON SAT NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY MON AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS LATE MON AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO S TEXAS BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG REGION TO EXTREME S TEXAS BY TUE NIGHT. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IS EXPECTED TO STALL MON THROUGH TUE...WITH THE EXTREME WESTERN SEGMENT LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL. MODEST HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA N OF THE FRONT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING RATHER GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS N OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND WITH 0000 UTC MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT IS BRINGING MODERATE NLY WINDS TO THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND 81W. THE DURATION OF THESE WINDS HAS ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7 FT THERE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING MOSTLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF 6-7 FT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION AND 7-8 FT SEAS IN THE SW PART OF THE CARIBBEAN. THESE SEAS WERE VERIFIED NICELY BY RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE MUCH HIGHER DUE TO PERSISTENT NE SWELL ENERGY THERE. THE SWELLS HAVE RAISED SEAS THERE TO THE 10-12 FT RANGE. BOTH LATEST WAVEWATCH AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS ACCURATELY DEPICT THESE LARGE WAVEHIGHTS. THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SWELL ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME SEAS SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT AND TO LOWER RANGES OF 5-7 FT SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE. ALTHOUGH NO COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS...FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG DIURNALLY DRIVEN NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY ON SAT. THE MODERATE NLY WINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH ON SAT BEFORE MATERIALIZING AGAIN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED NWPS/PREVIOUS OFFICIAL BLEND WITH 0000 UTC MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC ANALYSIS HAS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 25N65W SW TO JUST NE OF EASTERN CUBA. THE ANALYSIS HAS STRONG HIGH PRES ANALYZED TO THE W OF AND NW OF THE TROUGH...AND WEAKER HIGH PRES TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH. BOTH BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 7-9 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS DUE TO NE SWELLS...AND LOWER SEAS OF 4-7 FT N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 78W...AND 1-3 FT SEAS SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH SEVERAL RECENT ASCAT PASSES ARE NOTING...AND RECENTLY REVEALED MAINLY GENTLE NE-E TO THE E OF THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS...AND MODERATE NE WINDS TO THE SE OF THE BAHAMAS E TO 70W...AND INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SWATH OF SW-W MODERATE WINDS WAS CAPTURED IN THE ASCAT DATA OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS N OF ABOUT 29N BETWEEN 72W-77W. THE NE SWELLS E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT ACCORDING TO WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. A COLD FRONT...PRESENTLY JUST NW OF THE REGION...IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE FAR SE PORTION AS A WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY A DISSIPATING FRONT BY LATE ON SUN. HIGH PRES BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ON THE STRONG SIDE PER CONSENSUS OF MODELS...SO NLY WINDS THAT FOLLOW THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE WITH SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 4-6 FT...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF 5-7 FT SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS SUBSIDING TO 4-5 FT LATE ON MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.