000 AGXX40 KNHC 100648 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 148 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF ON TUE ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE MODELS FORECAST...BUT THE 0318 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS WINDS REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT... RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON SUN NIGHT. TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CLIP EASTERN WATERS TODAY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DOMINATE THE WINDS OVER THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUN AS TROUGHING BUILDS OVER TEXAS...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE W GULF. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS WINDS BELOW 25 KT. THE GFS IS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE NWPS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 0316 UTC ASCAT PASS AND NUMEROUS SHIP OBSERVATION SUGGEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE A FRESH N BREEZE. A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT ALIGNS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND DISSIPATE HERE THROUGH THU NIGHT. WHILE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AS TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO BE REINFORCED TODAY THROUGH FRI...WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PRIMARILY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THU THROUGH SUN. THE GFS IS GENERALLY THE MODEL TO BEAT OFF COLOMBIA AND IS THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS HERE. WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION WHEN ADJUSTING THE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE... 8-10 FT N SWELL HAS BLANKETED THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS BY SAT MORNING. THE MWW3 WAS SLOW TO BRING THIS SWELL SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE NWPS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 0226 UTC ASCAT-A PASS ALONG WITH BUOY OBS SHOW WINDS CONTINUE TO BE A FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE STRONGER GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THESE WINDS INITIALLY THAN THE ECMWF. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD A STRONGER SOLUTION IN THE SHORT TERM. THE JASON2 PASS FROM 31N66W TO 19N61W AT 0145 UTC SHOWED SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FT. SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD HIGHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WAS NECESSARY...WITH THE NWPS A BETTER MATCH FOR THE ALTIMETER PASS THAN THE LOWER MWW3. BOTH OF THESE WAVE MODELS ARE TOO LOW HERE INITIALLY. NE SWELL OVER 8 FT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 27N TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SECOND FRONT SWEEPS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN. CONDITONS WILL BE MORE TRANQUIL FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.