000 AGXX40 KNHC 091741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1241 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SE GULF. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SE GULF...4-5 FT OVER THE SW GULF...AND 3-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN WATERS BY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND FAR NW WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN...3-4 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...2-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 6-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AND REACH FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS BY WED NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. WITH TROUGHING PREVAILING N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WINDS AND SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN THU NIGHT AND FRI. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT SPREADING N-S OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THU MORNING. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FT OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC FORECAST AREAS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. SEAS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN FORECAST WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY SWELL IS SPREADING OVER THE AREA WITH SEAS IN THE 10-14 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD REACHING FROM NEAR 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY WED AFTERNOON AND STALLING FROM NEAR 31N60W TO EASTERN CUBA THU AFTERNOON. SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE W-E OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT OVER THE AREA BY FRI. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N WATERS EARLY FRI AND DISSIPATE BY SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.