000 AGXX40 KNHC 090637 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 137 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON SAT NIGHT. TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LOWERING OF THICKNESSES IN THE EASTERN GULF TODAY INTO WED AS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF TODAY. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DOMINATE THE WINDS OVER THE GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE GFS IS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE NWPS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 0242 UTC ASCAT-A PASS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SHOWS 20-25 KT NE WINDS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. THE STRONG 0000 UTC GFS SOLUTION IS WELL INITIALIZED HERE. AFTER THIS MORNING...THE LATEST GFS DOES NOT SHOW WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA HERE AGAIN UNTIL EARLY FRI. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AS TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC IS REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT TODAY THROUGH THU. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AND STALL FROM NEAR EASTERN CUBA TO NORTHERN HONDURAS THU BEFORE DISSIPATING THERE THU NIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOWER PRES OVER NW SOUTH AMERICA WILL ALLOW WINDS TO STRENGTHEN EARLY FRI. THE GFS IS GENERALLY THE MODEL TO BEAT OFF COLOMBIA AND IS THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS HERE. WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION WHEN ADJUSTING THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL WED WHEN 8-10 FT N SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SEEP INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...BLANKETING THE AREA E OF THE ISLANDS THU. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS BY FRI NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 0246 UTC ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE NE FLORIDA COAST BEHIND A TROUGH STRETCHED FROM 31N78.5W TO VERO BEACH FLORIDA. THE STRONGER UKMET HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THESE WINDS INITIALLY THAN THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAVGEM. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD A STRONGER SOLUTION IN THE SHORT TERM. THE CRYOSAT PASS ALONG 79W AT 2240 UTC SHOWED SEAS AS HIGH AS 20 FT BETWEEN 30N AND 31N...WITH SEAS TO 12 FT AS FAR S AS 28N. THE WAVE MODELS ARE TOO LOW HERE INITIALLY...AS MUCH AS 8 FT OFF THE MAX SEAS SEEN IN THE ALTIMETER PASS. BUOY 41002 TO THE NE REPORTED 19 FT SEAS AT 0600 UTC...4 FT LOWER THAN THE MWW3. MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD HIGHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HERE IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. NE SWELL OVER 8 FT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NEARLY ENTIRE AREA BY WED NIGHT. THE NWPS IS FASTER THAN THE MWW3 SPREADING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW THAT IS EXPECTED N OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA LATE WED AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FROM 31N58W TO EASTERN CUBA THU NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. A MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO N WATERS EARLY FRI AND DISSIPATE FROM 31N66W TO 28N73W TO 31N81W EARLY SAT. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST BEYOND DAY 2...BUT MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD A STRONGER SOLUTION THAT MATCHES OBS WAS NECESSARY IN THE SHORT TERM. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.