000 AGXX40 KNHC 070625 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THU NIGHT. TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL N ATLC HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE NW GULF SAT EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO FAR NE MEXICO SUN EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF MON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND SHOW LOWERING THICKNESSES IN THE EASTERN GULF LATE TUE AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DOMINATE THE WINDS OVER THE GULF THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENT ASCAT AND RAPIDSCAT DATA AS WELL AS SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO A FRESH BREEZE OR LESS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE LEE OF CUBA. ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AGAIN UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING WHEN DIURNALLY ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND LOWER PRES OVER NW SOUTH AMERICA WILL ALLOW WINDS TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE THROUGH THU. THE GFS IS GENERALLY THE MODEL TO BEAT HERE AND IS THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS HERE. WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION WHEN ADJUSTING THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL WED WHEN 8-10 FT N SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SEEP INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...BLANKETING THE AREA E OF THE ISLANDS THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. LATEST TAFB-NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES ALONG THE BROAD TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 60W WILL MOVE N THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. E COAST TODAY THAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THIS SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST SUN MORNING AND ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY BY EARLY TUE...BUT SWELL WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE AREA...SPANNING THE ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY WED. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BOTTLED UP MAINLY N OF THE AREA UNTIL AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE U.S. E COAST AND LOWERS THICKNESSES OVER WESTERN WATERS TUE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM 31N73W TO THE CUBAN COAST ALONG 80W BY TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS THE ANCHOR LOW MOVES N...WITH THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY LYING FROM 31N59W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY THU NIGHT. AGAIN...THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.