000 AGXX40 KNHC 040608 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 108 AM EST THU DEC 4 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SE GULF...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OVER THE SE GULF AND 2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT BUT WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO THE GULF WATERS BEFORE IT STALLS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH FRI THEN BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL AFTERWARDS. LATEST TAFB- NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY...AND WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING. BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAK OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE A LOCALLY TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL FRESHEN WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD TROUGH PREVAILS E OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS AREA IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...5-7 FT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST ARE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS..AND 2-4 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WHERE THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND SURFACE RIDGE W OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF THE SE UNITED STATES LATE SAT NIGHT AND BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MON WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS N OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.