000 AGXX40 KNHC 031912 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 212 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEN DRIFTING NW ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WHILE WEAK LOW HAS FORMED OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE OF BRO AND DRIFTING INLAND ATTM. LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS FINALLY BURNING OFF FROM CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL ZONES TO UPPER MEXICO. INVERTED TROFFING SHIFTING ACROSS SW PORTIONS PAST 24 HOURS NOW FROM CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 23N95W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THROUGH STRAITS OF FL AND WITH NE COMPONENT IS LIMITING WAVE GROWTH IN STRAITS...WITH DOWNSTREAM MAX OF 6 FT IN ENTRANCE TO YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS OTHERWISE 4-5 FT ACROSS MAJORITY OF BASIN. RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD TO YIELD MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND REASONABLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY INTO FAR NW WATERS SAT EVENING...THEN EASE VERY SLOWLY SWD THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS WEAKENING RIDGE N OF THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING E ACROSS FL PENINSULA WHILE SRN END REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EPAC S OF TEHUANTEPEC... WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING VENTING DEEP CNVTN ACROSS THE SW CARIB. BROAD LLVL TROFFING IS SUGGESTED ALONG ABOUT 80W ACROSS SW PORTIONS AND MAINTAINING N TO NE WINDS NW PORTIONS WHERE SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT. NLY WINDS ACROSS SW PORTIONS 15-20 KT IS COMBINING WITH ENE TRADEWIND SWELL THERE TO YIELD CONFUSED SEAS OF 6-9 FT OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN THROUGH FRI...YIELDING A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE MODESTLY OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AS DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC INVOF 60W...AND WILL FRESHEN THE NE WINDS SPILLING ACROSS BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND INTO NW PORTIONS. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS W ATLC RIDGE THAT HAS PREVAILED N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE AND ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. BROAD LLVL TROFFING HAD DEVELOPED E OF BAHAMAS...AND JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ILL DEFINED IN STLT IMAGERY BUT CAN BE IDENTIFIED VIA RECENT ASCAT PASSES EXTENDING FROM NEAR 24N56W TO OFFSHORE WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO. STRONG NE GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS N OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO GENERATE BROAD ZONE OF WIND SWELL AFFECTING ALL WATERS...WITH SEAS 7-11 FT E OF 75W AND HIGHER OFF TO THE NE. AS THE ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE INTO NE ATLC...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NW OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. BROAD TROFFING CURRENTLY DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH MID OCEANIC TROUGH INVOF 54-55W WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WWD AND CROSS 60W BY 48 HRS THEN DRIFT SLOWLY E SAT-SUN...WITH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING LLVL VORTICITY LIFTING OUT TO THE NNE AND OUT OF HSF AREA. MODELS HAVE COME IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND MORE IN LINE WITH CONSISTENT ECMWF...WITH LATEST PARALLEL RUN OF GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z ECMWF. HAVE THUS USED A GFS-ECMWF BLEND FOR WIND AND WAVES ACROSS THE ATLC AND NW CARIB BEYOND 48 HRS. PRES GRADIENT TO RESTRENGTHEN NW OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO BRING ABOUT FRESHENING WINDS E OF 70W OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE NEW WEAK FRONT COMES OFF SE U.S. COAST SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN AND IS DRAGGED E AND NE THROUGH MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.