000 AGXX40 KNHC 021852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 152 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FRONT HAS STALLED ALREADY ACROSS NW GULF FROM SW LA TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST...ALTHOUGH STLT IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST FRONT IS STILL MOVING SWD ALONG MEXICAN COAST AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT THE LEAST IS NOW MOVING THROUGH MMTM. LLVL CYCLONIC SWIRL HAS SHIFTED SW FROM N OF THE YUCATAN TO W OF MMMD ATTM LEAVING BROAD INVERTED TROFFING ALONG ABOUT 90W. WIND SURGE ACROSS N AND NE QUADS OF THIS FEATURE AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT KICKED UP SEAS THERE...WITH 12Z ALTIMETER PASS SHOWING SEAS 8-10 FT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND 42001 ROSE TO 8 FT FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND NOW DOWN TO 7 FT. 11Z RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED NNE WINDS 15-2- KT BEHIND FRONT WHILE RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING DECREASED WINDS ACROSS E GULF...WITH STILL 20 KT THROUGH W PORTION OF STRAITS AND OFFSHORE OF NW CUBA. PEAK SEAS IN NARROW ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH FLOW THROUGH STRAITS AND LLVL VORT FROM OVERNIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL STALL AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT DRIFTS NW ALONG NW COASTS BY WED MORNING THEN REMAIN STATIONARY AS A COASTAL TROF THROUGH THU BEFORE DISSIPATING AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL NEXT FEW DAYS...BECOMING E TO SE LATE THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT WILL EXTEND FROM SE U.S. INTO STRAITS AND SE PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY SAT FOR 15-20 KT WINDS THERE... OCCASIONALLY PULSING TO SOLID 20 KT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS W ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ON WEAKENING 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED NW OF BERMUDA...WHICH CONTINUES TO INDUCE STRONG NELY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF ATLC WATERS AND CENTRAL CARIB ROUGHLY BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. DIGGING AND SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH ALONG 88-89W FROM GULF OF MEXICO INTO FAR EPAC AIDING IN REINFORCEMENT OF SEMIPERMANENT SFC TROF ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS...RECENTLY DEPICTED BY ASCAT PASSES. ASCAT PASSES ALSO SHOWED SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SOLID 25 KT WINDS OFF OF COLOMBIA...AND WOULD SUSPECT THAT WINDS ARE 25-30 KT THERE AS FORECAST BY GFS PARALLEL. LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING E OF DEEP LAYERED TROFFING IN W CARIB FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY E AND NE IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROF BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ALIGNED NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SW CARIB BECOMING ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ZONE BY THU- FRI. ATLC RIDGE TO SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS WITH INDUCED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN WEAKENING. GFS PARALLEL AGAIN FORECASTINGNOCTURNAL WIND MAX TO PULSE TO 30 KT TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATE WED THROUGH FRI. DEEP LAYERED MID OCEANIC TROF FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY GLOBAL MODELS INVOF 60W WILL INDUCE INVERTED TROFFING ACROSS THE ATLC THU THROUGH WEEKEND AND RESULT IN NELY FLOW ACROSS CARIB W OF 75W. ACCELERATED FLOW IN LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BE EXPECTED...WHERE SEAS MAY RUN 1-2 FT ABOVE GUIDANCE. LATEST RUN OF GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND GFS NOW DOWNPLAYING DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW IN SW CARIB. TROFFING ACROSS ATLC WILL ALSO RESULT IN WEAKENED TRADES ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND E CARIB...WHERE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN BELOW NORMS. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BEYOND DAY 2 W ATLC RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND WILL SHIFT NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC NEXT 24 HOURS. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHEARLINE EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N54W TO COASTAL WATERS OF N PUERTO RICO. INDUCED PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CREATE LARGE ZONE OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF AREA S OF 29N W OF 70W THIS MORNING. SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE NOT ANALYZED HAS BEEN DEPICTED BY ASCAT PASSES PAST 24 HOURS TO THE NW OF OLD FRONT...AND IS REINFORCING THE STRONG NE WIND FLOW REACHING TO NEAR 27N66W ATTM. SEAS BEHIND THIS ADVANCING WEAK BOUNDARY RUNNING IN THE 9-12 FT RANGE...WHILE FARTHER DOWNWIND...BROADER AREA OF SEAS 9-12 FT ENCOMPASS MUCH OF AREA E THROUGH NE OF BAHAMAS AND NW OF SHEARLINE...WITH ALTIMETER PASSES THIS MORNING SHOWING A FEW MAXES TO 11 AND 12 FT. FLORIDA BUOYS 41009 AND 41010 HAVE RISEN TO 7 AND 9 FT RESPECTIVELY PAST FEW HOURS AS WIND SWELL SPREADS WWD. LOOK FOR GRADIENT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH WITHIN RIDGE SHIFTS NE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 2 BUT STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP LAYERED TROFFING ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC DAY 3-6...WITH GFS STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION. GFS STILL DEVELOPING SFC TROF AND SFC LOW A FEW DEGREES E AND NE OF ECMWF BY FRI...WHILE PARALLEL RUN IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF. W ATLC RIDGE FROM NW ATLC TO NRN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS TIME WILL PRODUCE PRES GRADIENT INDUCED NE WINDS W OF THIS LARGE INVERTED TROF FRI THROUGH SAT TO REDEVELOP NELY WIND SWELL ACROSS MUCH OF AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.