000 AGXX40 KNHC 010619 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 119 AM EST MON DEC 1 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SE WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SE GULF...AND 3-5 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD TODAY ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF WATERS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO THE GULF WATERS AS IT WILL STALL TUE AND GET PUSHED BACK NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE OVER THE SE GULF EARLY TUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OVER THE GULF WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH WED THEN BLEND OF ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. LATEST TAFB- NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...REACHING 12 FT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...3-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN BY MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. THIS WILL DECREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MIDWEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER AND PRODUCES AND LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES NOT. FOR THIS REASON..HAVE BLENDED THE ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS OVER THE SE WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...EXCEPT MODERATE WINDS SE OF THE SHEAR LINE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...4-7 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS...6-7 FT SE OF THE SHEAR LINE...AND 4-7 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL DECREASE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.