000 AGXX40 KNHC 291800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 1150 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS IN THE EASTERN GULF CONFIRMS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE SE GULF. MULTIPLE SHIPS CONFIRM THESE CONDITIONS. THE 1200 UTC GFS APPEARS RELATIVELY WELL INITIALIZED HERE...WITH THE 1200 UTC MWW3 LOW IN THE STRAITS IN CONFUSED SEAS. THE NWPS IS PERFORMING BETTER HERE AND WAS RELIED ON MORE HEAVILY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRETCH W FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE FL KEYS SUN NIGHT AND MON AS HIGH PRES LINGERS NEAR BERMUDA. THIS IS THE ONLY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN WINDS AND SEAS AREA EXPECTED TO MEET THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN BY MON NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES IT FROM THE W. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFICULT TO FIND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE GULF ON TUE AS IT BATTLES A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FRESH BREEZE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF TUE/WED AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE DIFFUSE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE GULF SHOULD BEGIN TO PHASE AROUND THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TUE THROUGH THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSISTS BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA ACCORDING TO THE 1152 UTC RAPIDSCAT AND 1432 UTC ASCAT-B PASSES. BUOY 42057 REPORTED 23 KT NE WINDS AND 10 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT AT 1600 UTC. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NEAR BERMUDA BEHIND THE FRONT. NE TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO INCREASE IN AREA THROUGH MON AND THEN SHRINK TUE AND WED IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THU. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE THEN THE ECMWF BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ALONG WITH ALTIMETER PASSES NE OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 1100 UTC AND 1030 UTC CONFIRM A LARGE AREA OF SEAS OVER 8 FT PERSISTS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM 31N55W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE 1428 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER NE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SOLID AREA OF FRESH WINDS WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THE FRONT FROM 62W AND 68W AS WELL AS OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN AS MID- LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE NE TRADE WINDS TAKE OVER AT THIS TIME...SHIFTING THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS PRIMARILY S OF 26N UNTIL TUE. BY TUE...STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE NW ATLC...MOVING THE PRES GRADIENT AND THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE WANES SOME ON TUE AS THE INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC BEGINS TO AMPLIFY E OF THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED INVERTED TROUGH NEAR 45W AND RIDGING ALONG 65W ON THU MORNING COMPARED TO THE WEAKER AND MORE WESTERLY GFS WHICH ALLOWS THE BULK OF THE TROUGHING TO BREAK AWAY WELL NE OF THE AREA. THE GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE CMC AND NAVGEM HINT AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SCENARIO. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM TUE NIGHT ONWARD HELPS TO ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS BRINGS THE FRESH TRADE WINDS SLIGHTLY FARTHER S THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THAN THE 1200 UTC GFS SHOWS ON THU AND KEEPS WINDS LIGHTER THAN THE GFS OVER FAR EASTERN WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.