000 AGXX40 KNHC 281838 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 1242 UTC ASCAT PASS IN THE EASTERN GULF CONFIRMS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SE GULF WITH MULTIPLE SHIPS REPORTING SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE...AND AS HIGH AS 12 FT...IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SINCE 1200 UTC. THE GFS APPEARS RELATIVELY WELL INITIALIZED HERE...WITH THE MWW3 LOW IN THE STRAITS IN CONFUSED SEAS. THE NWPS IS PERFORMING BETTER HERE AND WAS RELIED ON MORE HEAVILY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRETCH W FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE FL KEYS SUN NIGHT AND MON AS HIGH PRES LINGERS NEAR BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN BY MON NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFICULT TO FIND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE GULF ON TUE AS IT BATTLES A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN. THE GFS HAS STRONGER WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF THAN THE ECMWF ON TUE/WED AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE DIFFUSE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE GULF SHOULD BEGIN TO PHASE AROUND THIS TIME. THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA TO JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA HAS A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS BEHIND IT WITH BUOY 42057 REPORTING 11 FT SEAS AT 1800 UTC. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NEAR BERMUDA BEHIND THE FRONT. NE TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO INCREASE IN AREA THROUGH MON AND THEN SHRINK AND SHIFT W TUE AND WED IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN. ...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE THEN ECMWF ADDED ON WED. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE UNTIL WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 1500 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N62W TO 21N75W AND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM 31N67W TO 23N79W. THE STRONGEST PRES GRADIENT IS SHIFTING N OF THE AREA...WITH N SWELL JEEPING SEAS ABOVE 8 FT NEAR THE FRONT INTO SAT NIGHT. THEN...THE NE TRADE WINDS TAKE OVER...SHIFTING THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS PRIMARILY S OF 26N UNTIL TUE NIGHT. TUE NIGHT INTO WED...STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE NW ATLC...MOVING THE PRES GRADIENT AND THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS ON THE STRONG SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND WITH THE WINDS OVER THE SW N ATLC. ADDED IN SOME ECMWF TO THE FORECAST FOR WED TO ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.