000 AGXX40 KNHC 250905 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 405 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING BUT RACING MORE QUICKLY DOWN THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. FRONT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM FL PANHANDLE NEAR KAAF ACROSS NW HALF OF BASIN TO NEAR 42055 THEN SSE TO MEXICAN COAST ALMOST TO MMMT. FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH VERACRUZ IN PAST FEW HOURS WITH COASTAL OBS SHOWING WINDS 20-25 KT THERE. AN EARLY EVENING ALTIMETER PASS ALONG ABOUT 97W SHOWED SEAS 7-10 FT S OF 24.5N WITH PEAK OF 10 FT OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO...WHERE LATE EVENING ASCAT PASS SHOWED N WINDS 25 KT. WAVE MODELS NOT GENERATING SEAS QUICKLY ENOUGH AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO HAND EDIT THROUGH FIRST 18 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOW FORWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT...REACHING FROM BIG BEND REGION TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 12Z...THEN MEANDER THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LLVL VORT DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS NE PORTIONS THEN MOVES NE ACROSS FL AND INTO SW N ATLC WED MORNING...WITH FRONT PUSHING SE AS LOW LIFTS OUT. I HAVE NOT DEPICTED LOW IN SFC PROGS AS IMPACTS NOT SIGNIFICANT ACROSS GULF WATERS...BUT LOW TO DEEPEN QUICKLY ACROSS SW N ATLC WED YIELDING GALES THERE. MODELS HINTING AT GALES BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY W OF VERACRUZ WITH SREF SHOWING HIGH PROGS THEN...BEFORE GALES LIGHT UP NARROW ZONE BEHIND FRONT AND ACROSS MOST OF BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST GALES TO END AROUND 12S WED AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGHYUCATAN CHANNEL AND STARTS TO CROSS STRAITS OF FL...WITH NLY FLOW THEN SLOWLY ABATING ACROSS THE BASIN. PEAK SEAS 12-15 FT WILL FILL UP MUCH OF BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AND WILL BE GENERALLY 9-12 FT ELSEWHERE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED MORNING. FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR SE PART OF BASIN BY 18Z WED WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH DROPPING INTO NW PORTIONS BEFORE IT IS OVERTAKEN BY DRY SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED NIGHT AND THU...WHICH WILL REINFORCE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS BEHIND FRONT ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER THROUGHOUT THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH FRI...AGAINST THE FLORIDA CURRENT KEEPING SEAS AT LEAST 8 FT OFF NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO EARLY SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF BY LATE SAT. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS OVER THE NE GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...SOUTH OF RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS...WITH NOCTURNAL MAX DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND LIKELY BUILDING 11-12 FT OFF COLOMBIA ATTM. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A STRONG ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW INTO CENTRALBAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES ACROSS BASIN E OF 80W AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE W PORTION OF RIDGE AND GRADIENT RELAXES. FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL WED 06-12Z ALLOWING NLY WINDS 25-30 KT TO SPREAD S THROUGH THE CHANNEL AND OFFSHORE OF BELIZE. FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS BY 00Z THU AND FINALLY STALL E CENTRAL CUBA TO NE COAST OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT. AS SECONDARY FRONT DROPS INTO N GULF EARLY THU...PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS NW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT AND INCREASE WINDS 25-30 KT FROM OFFSHORE OF BELIZE INTO GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SEAS BUILDING 10-12 FT THROUGH FRI. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT...WITH EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SE OF GFS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. ATLC RIDGING CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND INTO FAR SE BAHAMAS. LLVL TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC WILL SHIFT WWD AND AID IN PRODUCING STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND LONG FETCH OF NE WINDS 20-25 KT INTO SE PORTIONS TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT ENTERS REGION AND RIDGE WEAKENS THU. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF NE FL COAST EARLY AFTERNOON AND MEANDER THERE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK LLVL VORT ALONG FRONT RACES NE ACROSS N HALF OF FL TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AND DEEPENS ACROSS W ATLC WED. MODELS SUGGEST BL FLOW 35-50 KT AHEAD OF THE LOW EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS NW PORTIONS...AND I WILL RELUCTANTLY ISSUED A BRIEF 6 HOUR MINIMAL GALE N OF 29N THERE. SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE TO THEN CATCH UP TO MEANDERING FRONT WED AND BEGIN TO PUSH IT SE...REACHING 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 80W BY 00Z THU AND EVENTUALLY STALLING AND BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE FROM 25N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA SAT EVENING. NW WINDS MAINLY 20-25 KT EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT W OF 75W WED...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF 25-30 KT OFFSHORE OF JAX WED MORNING...WHICH WILL LARGELY AFFECT THEIR COASTAL ZONES. W T E RIDGING THEN WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK WITH NE TO E TRADES FRESHENING S OF 25-26N SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E INTO W ATLC. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING WED. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.