000 AGXX40 KNHC 230822 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 322 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS NEGATIVE TILT VORT LOBE SWINGING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ATTM AND HELPING TO CREATE A LINE OF STRONG TSTORMS MOVING E AND OFFSHORE OF TEXAS AND NOW INTO LA COASTAL WATERS. BUOYS AND OIL PLATFORMS REPORTING SE WINDS 25-35 KT AND CANNOT IGNORE RECENT GFS FORECASTS FOR GALES ANY LONGER...AND AM ISSUING GALE FOR SLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS E AND NE AND INTO FL PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GALE IN EFFECT THROUGH 21Z. RECENT ASCAT PASSES DEPICTING STRONG S-SE FLOW INTO CNVTN ACROSS NW GULF AND ALSO ON E SIDE OF LLVL TROF ACROSS NE CENTRAL GULF...WHERE A FEW 30+ KT WIND VECTORS ARE DEPICTED. DOWNSTREAM BUOY 42039 REPORTING 10 FT. WILL THUS BE ADJUSTING WINDS AND SEAS UPWARD FOR THE SHORT TERM ACROSS N GULF. OTHERWISE... LITTLE CHANGE IN RECENT SYNOPTIC REASONING...WITH MODELS CONTINUING MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT WITH SERIES OF FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD FRONT TO DROP SE INTO NW GULF TONIGHT BEHIND VORT LOBE EXITING INTO W ATLC...WITH A VERY BRIEF SHOT OF NW WINDS 25 KT ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BEFORE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT CONTINUES SE ACROSS GULF...REACHING FROM JUST NW OF TAMPA BAY TO VERACRUZ AREA BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF AND UKMET ARE INSISTENT IN DRIVING NLY WINDS 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 KT DOWN MEXICAN COAST BEHIND FRONT MON AND MON NIGHT AND HAS BLENDED IN ECMWF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. REINFORCING HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND S-SE ALONG GULF COASTAL MEXICO TUE TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT AND START NLY GALES BY AFTERNOON. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING GALES OFF VERACRUZ AS EARLY AS 12Z TUE...WHILE GFS AND UKMET HOLD OFF UNTIL 00Z...AND WILL COMPROMISEBY STARTING AT 18Z FOR BOTH MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS AND ZONE BEHIND FRONT EXTENDING NE TO 88W...WITH GALES CONTINUING BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS YUCATAN AND INTO NW CARIB AND STRAITS OF FL. NWPS GENERATING SEAS 10-14 FT BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL NOT WATER THIS DOWN. WINDS AND SEAS TO THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH END OF WEEK AS FRONT LINGERS ACROSS W CARIB AND NELY FLOW 20-25 KT PERSISTS ACROSS SE GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS LOW-MID LVL WAVE MOVING WWD ACROSS NE CARIB PAST FEW DAYS NOW ALONG 73W...AND HAS OUTRUN WEAKENING TUTT LOW NOW S OF PUERTO RICO. PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH ATLC FRONTAL ZONE INFLUENCING TRADES ACROSS E AND CENTRAL CARIB WITH FRESH ELY FLOW AROUND 20 KT ACROSS N PORTIONS OF LOW-MID LVL WAVE WHICH HAS KICKED UP SEAS 7-9 FT FROM JUST S OF MONA PASSAGE W-SW TO 76W. FORCING HIGH ACROSS NW ATLC WILL SHIFT E NEXT 72 HOURS AND MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CARIB E OF 78W FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...AND RETURN OF NOCTURNAL MAX TO 30 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA NEXT 3 NIGHTS. GULFMEX FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO NW PORTIONS WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS 25-30 KT STREAMING S BEHIND FRONT AND INTO GULF OF HONDURAS BY 00Z THU. PARALLEL RUN OF GFS STILL SHOWING BRIEF GALES IN YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AFTERNOON...AND THEN IN W-NW FLOW IN SOUTHERN GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THU THROUGH FRI...WHICH IS ALSO HINTED AT BY ECMWF. GFS NOT INDICATING THIS ATTM AND HAVE HELD OFF ON CARIB GALES FOR TIME BEING BEHIND FRONT. SEAS TO BUILD 9-12 FT BEHIND FRONT AND DRIVE DOWN INTO GULF OF HONDURAS WATERS THU AND THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE GRADIENT WEAKENS QUICKLY ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN AS FRONT ARRIVES WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING. BROAD LLVL INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ATLC WWD TO NEAR 50W MON-WED AND INDUCE STRONG PRES GRADIENT TO THE W AND NW DUE TO ATLC RIDGING...PRODUCING BROAD AND ELONGATED NE FETCH FROM CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND INTO E CARIB MON THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SEAS TO BUILD DURING THIS 9-11 FT AND BLEED THROUGH CARIB PASSAGES. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SE PORTIONS...FROM NEAR 24N65W THEN W TO W-NW AND IS BEGINNING TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH NW BAHAMAS ATTM. SECONDARY BENIGN FRONTAL ZONE MOVED S AND SW INTO N PORTIONS PAST 12-18 HOURS TO REINFORCE PRES GRADIENT N OF FRONT...AND HAS MAINTAINED 25 KT WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30 KT AND HIGHER W OF 70W THROUGH NW BAHAMAS AND TO SE FL COAST YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH THIS BAND OF STRONG WINDS SHIFTING WITH WARM FRONT ATTM. SEAS ACROSS THIS ZONE CURRENTLY 10-12 FT WITH ISOLATED AREAS TO 13 FT LIKELY AND RECENTLY REPORTED BY SHIP NEAR 26N5N75W...WHILE DOWNSTREAM BUOY 41009 HOLDING AT 10-11 FT AND SLAMMING CENTRAL FL COASTS WITH ROUGH AND BUILDING SURF. WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT N TODAY WITH STRONG SE WINDS TO THE NE OF IT SHIFTING N AND GRADUALLY AWAY FROM FL COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO GA AND SC COASTAL WATERS. FLOW TO THEN SLOWLY VEER WITH SLY WINDS 25-30 KT PREVAILING ACROSS NW PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND GALES FARTHER N AND OFFSHORE OF GA-SC COASTS. ATLC HIGH TO RETREAT TO THE E WITH RIDGE BUILDING SW TO NW BAHAMAS MON-MON NIGHT AS GULFMEX FRONT MOVES OFF NE FL COAST AND INTO FAR NW WATERS MON NIGHT AND SLOWLY SE ACROSS W PORTIONS AND FL PENINSULA TUE. MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT CONTINUE AMONG GLOBAL MODELS AND HAVE USED A CONSENSUS...WITH GEFS CLOSE TO EUROPEAN MODELS. REINFORCING HIGH BUILDING ACROSS GULF TUE AND TUE NIGHT TO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN PRES GRAD BEHIND FRONT ACROSS NW PORTIONS TUE NIGHT...WITH FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SE THROUGH NW BAHAMAS WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS TO ALLOW STRONG N TO NW FLOW TO SPILL SWD BEHIND FRONT DOWN FL NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND INCREASE TO 30 KT. UNSTABLE FLOW ACROSS WARM GULFSTREAM WATERS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WED AND WED NIGHT NW PORTIONS. HOWEVER...MODELS DEVELOP LOW DEEPENING LOW BY WED MORNING OFFSHORE OF GS-SC AND LIFT IT NE. DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MODEL OUTPUTS OF LOW AND WIND FIELD W OF FRONT AND WILL HOLD WINDS CLOSER TO GFS AND AT 30 KT FOR TIME BEING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.