000 AGXX40 KNHC 210823 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 323 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIB WITH STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AS HIGH IS NOW ACROSS SW ALABAMA. RECENT 02-03Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWED SOLID AREA OF 25 KT THROUGH STRAITS WHERE SEAS MUST BE 8 OR 9 FT AGAINST CURRENT ATTM AND HAVE ADJUSTED UP IN EXCESS OF GUIDANCE THERE. ELSEWHERE...RECENT ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED FRESHENING SLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WHICH IS HANDLED WELL BY GFS. FRONT FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN THE LIFT N AS HIGH SHIFTS NE...AND LLVL FLOW OPENS UP TO NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH GREAT PLAINS. FRESH TO STRONG FLOW FORECAST TO PERSIST N OF THE N DRIFTING BOUNDARY SAT AND SUN AND EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT ACROSS NE COASTAL WATERS AND FL PANHANDLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS LOW PRES SWEEPS ACROSS MS VALLEY AND FRONT LIFTS N AND INTO SE U.S. AS WARM FRONT. FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO REACH TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY MON WITH REINFORCING FRONT BLASTING SE MON...MERGING WITH FIRST FRONT AND REACHING TAMPA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SWEEPING SE OF GULF AND INTO NW CARIB EARLY WED. GFS SUGGESTS BRIEF OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED GALES OFF VERACRUZ TUE BEHIND FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT. GFS PARALLEL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AND WILL HOLD OFF ON POSSIBLE GALES FOR THE MOMENT...BUT LATEST ECMWF NOW IN WITH GALES BEHIND SECONDARY PUSH BEHIND FRONT TUE NIGHT...AND LOOKING MORE LIKELY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS NW CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN CHANNEL THEN LIKELY INLAND ACROSS FAR ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. RECENT SCAT PASSES MISSED FAR NW CARIB BUT FEW OBS AVAILABLE ATTM SUGGEST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THERE TO 15-20 KT...AND BUOY 42056 NOW DOWN TO 4 FT...ALTHOUGH LIKELY STILL AROUND 20 KT AND 6-7 OR 8 FT ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL. WEAK LLVL PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS E CARIB AND NOW APPROACHING 70W REFLECTED IN RECENT ASCAT PASS WITH 20 KT ACROSS N PORTIONS. STRONG WIND SURGE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWELL MOVING THROUGH TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ATTM AND BLEEDING INTO E CARIB WATERS WHERE BUOY 42060 REMAINS 7 FT IN 6-7 SEC WAVES...AND 41099 FLUCTUATING 9-10 FT RECENT HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS THROUGH BAHAMAS AND STRAITS VEER TO ELY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH N OF FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO MID ATLC STATES. STRONGEST PRES GRADIENT THEN SHIFTS INTO SW ATLC AND BAHAMAS N OF N DRIFTING FRONTAL REMNANTS SAT AND SUN...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ACROSS N CENTRAL CARIB WHERE MAX WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8-9 FT ARE FORECAST OFFSHORE OF HISPANIOLA. MEANWHILE...HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC TO SLIDE E-NE AND REDUCE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WHERE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH SUN...ONLY FOR PRES GRADIENT TO BE REINFORCED AGAIN MON AND TUE FROM HIGH SLIDING NE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC. TRADITIONAL STRONG TRADES AND BUILDING SEAS TO RETURN OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. NEXT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY WED AND INTO NW CARIB WED...SIMILAR TO THIS RECENT FRONT. GFS PARALLEL SUGGESTING NLY GALES BEHIND FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NW CARIB WED..AS DOES ECMWF. GRIDS PRESENTLY 30 KT AND LESS THERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM 31N63W THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NW CUBA. RECENT SCAT PASSES INDICATING STRONG ENE FLOW N OF BOUNDARY THROUGH BAHAMAS AND INTO STRAITS...WHERE WINDS ARE BLOWING AGAINST CURRENT AND SEAS WILL RUN ABOVE GUIDANCE. ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE EMBEDDED WITHIN BAND TO N OF FRONT. RECENT ALTIMETER PASS ALSO DEPICTED SEAS TO 8 FT N OF THE FRONT AND JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE WAVE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE. SFC HIGH NW OF FRONT WILL SHIFT NE NEXT 24 HOURS AND REALIGN STRONG PRES GRADIENT THROUGH STRAITS AND ACROSS NW BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC AS WEAK FRONTAL REMNANTS PERSIST. HIGH TO SLIDE E OFF OF CAROLINAS SAT AND SUN AND MAINTAIN STRONG GRADIENT FLOW N OF NORTHWARD DRIFTING BOUNDARY ACROSS NW BAHAMAS...ADJACENT ATLC W OF 70W AND INTO NE FLORIDA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SE TO S SUN AND MON AS DEEP LAYERED LOW LIFTS NE THROUGH MS VALLEY AND INTO NE U.S. AND SFC HIGH SLIDES FARTHER NE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC. ASSOCIATED NEW COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS MON NIGHT WITH WINDS INITIALLY N TO NNE 15-20 KT BEHIND FRONT. SECONDARY FRONT TO MERGE WITH STALLING FIRST FRONT BY TUE NIGHT TO REINFORCE PRES GRADIENT AND PUSH FRONT THROUGH FLORIDA AND REACH CENTRAL CUBA TO 31N73W BY WED AFTERNOON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.