000 AGXX40 KNHC 191904 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 204 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTER FRI. 1032 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED SE OF THE AREA YESTERDAY. A SWATH OF STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SE RETURN START TO INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF ON FRI AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGHING FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCEMOVING ACROSS TEXAS. LOOKING AHEAD TO SAT THROUGH MON...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CLOSE ALTHOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE UKMET...BUT CONSISTENT WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. AN ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE LOW IS DEPICTED IN ALL GUIDANCE OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND AREA BY FRI NIGHT...THEN LIFTS NE TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH LATE SAT. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF LATE FRI THROUGH LATE SUN BEHIND A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEKEND. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS OF THE GULF AS WELL. A WEAK FRONT WILL TRAIL THE UPPER SYSTEM...MOVING INTO THE NW GULF WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT THEN LIKELY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON AS UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE THU. STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. AN WEAK AND TRANSITORY UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS INTERACTING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS WEAKEN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSIST WITH SEAS OF MOSTLY 4 TO 6 FT. A RECENT ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...SOUTH OF A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 30N45W. TRADE WIND RELATED SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND BUOYS ARE INDICATED MUCH OF THIS IS REACHING W OF 55W TOWARD THE ISLANDS. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND UKMET ARE SIMILAR INDICATED GENERALLY FRESH TRADES WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER SPIKES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA AND OFF COLOMBIA...REGULATED BY THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NEAR 25N73W THEN STATIONARY TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS STARTING TO STALL AS WELL...BUT A REINFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY FRI...THEN MOVE E AND MERGE WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COMBINED FRONT WILL SHIFT E AND REACH FROM 31N55W TO 26N70W BY EARLY SAT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N THEN STALL BY EARLY FRI ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THERE REMAINS GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE MAJOR MODELS INDICATING STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE SAT...VEERING TO SE SUN AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO EXTEND E TO W ALONG ROUGHLY 28N BY LATE MON AS THE LOW PRES LIFTS TO THE N OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONG E WINDS TO DIMINISH N OF 22N THROUGH LATE MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.