000 AGXX40 KNHC 181859 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 159 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AREA BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THAT STRONG WINDS PERSIST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ INDICATED WINDS HAD DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. SEAS RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 FT IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 14 FT IN THE FAR SW GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECASTED EARLIER AND THIS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE OPPOSITE TREND HAPPENS FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH A NOD TO THE STRONGER ECMWF AND UKMET...SE WINDS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE NW GULF FOR SATURDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING BUMP IN WAVE HEIGHTS. THE GFS SHOWS STRONGER WINDS IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY BUT MOSTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. REGIONAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A 15 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THEN SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST TOWARD BELIZE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE BY THU. THE SHORT TERM OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN FOLLOWS A GFS/UKMET SOLUTION WITH STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN DIMINISHING WINDS AFTERWARD AS THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TO INCREASE WITH STRONG TRADES WINDS OFF COLOMBIA AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BY SAT. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...CURRENTLY REACHING FROM ROUGHLY 31N76W TO 26.5N80W. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD AGAINST THE NORTHBOUND GULF STREAM IN THIS AREA TO AT LEAST 9 FT. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 30N WITHIN 240 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 27N AND IS SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...REACHING FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY WED BEFORE DRIFTING SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST AND STALLING THU. HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING STRONG EASTERLY FLOW TO SET UP E OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL IN THE GFS AND UKMET AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT THESE HIGHER WINDS SAT AND SUN. SEAS WILL REACH AT LEAST 10 FT IN THE LONG FETCH OF STRONG WINDS NE OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.