000 AGXX40 KNHC 161927 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 227 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE WESTERN GULF...PARTICULARLY N OF 24N W OF 92W...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST TODAY AHEAD OF 1012 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 28N96W. THE LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF. THIS IS PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND VERY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NE CORNER WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATER TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY MON MORNING...FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON EVENING...FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE MORNING AND THEN FINALLY MOVE SE OF THE AREA BY TUE EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS OF 9-14 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MON THROUGH EARLY TUE. CURRENTLY...THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 95 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SW GULF WHILE THE GEFS PROBABILITIES REACH 90-100 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE SW GULF. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE WESTERN GULF ZONES AMZ011...AMZ017 AND AMZ023. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY TUE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS OF 9-13 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE SW PART. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUE INTO WED. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES INDICATE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...MAINLY N OF 18N AND SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. TRADES WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF AREA. A WINDSAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE THE 1448 UTC ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT NE TO E WINDS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY TUE AS A COLD FRONT TRAILS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS ON TUE FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY TUE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED. BY THU...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL IMPACT THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 27N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH BUOY 41047 LOCATED NEAR 27.5N71.5W REPORTING SEAS OF 7-8 FT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SE-S WINDS ARE ON INCREASE ACROSS THE NW PART LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR NE FLORIDA THAT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE N OF AREA. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS MON EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N74W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS TUE...FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA WED...AND FROM 28N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA WED NIGHT...THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH THU. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING MON. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.