000 AGXX40 KNHC 151820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 22N84W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND 5-7 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SUN NIGHT. GALES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT MON INTO EARLY TUE. THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINTY ABOUT THE GALES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET WITH THE GFS STARTING GALES MON MORNING AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF STARTING THE GALES MON AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE GALES STARTING MON AFTERNOON BUT MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP THE STARTING TIME SLIGHTLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SE OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN START TO DECREASE...WITH WINDS FALLING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE WED NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN....AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...3-4 FT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS THROUGH MON BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 9 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS BY MON. AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS BY TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS TUE NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE NW WATERS BY MIDWEEK WITH 8-10 FT SEAS SEEPING INTO THE AREA IN NORTHERLY SWELL FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N67W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE W OF THE FRONT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS...3-5 FT E OF THE FRONT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN WATERS...STALLING FROM 28N65W TO 28N72W SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD MON ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF THE SE UNITES STATES MON NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MAY REACH NEAR GALE FORCE LATE MON/EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N68W TO W CUBA TUE NIGHT AND FROM 29N65W TO W CUBA WED NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON INTO TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.