000 AGXX40 KNHC 141801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 101 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 1622 UTC ASCAT PASS STILL SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM LIKELY HAS AN ADVANTAGE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOLDING ONTO THE GALE UNTIL 0000 UTC. THE SREF HAD DROPPED THE CHANCE OF GALE FROM 85 PERCENT AT 1200 UTC TO 15 PERCENT AT 1500 UTC...OBVIOUSLY SHOWING THE WEIGHT OF THE GFS MEMBERS. THE GFS KILLED THE GALE BY 1800 UTC. GIVEN THE ASCAT PASS COMPARED BETTER WITH THE NAM...WILL SIDE WITH IT FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST TO KEEP THE GALE WARNING AROUND AT 1800 UTC...DROPPING OFF BY 0000 UTC. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE 0000 UTC ECMWF WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. THE NAVGEM IS THE ONLY MODEL AS FAST AS THE GFS...WITH THE CMC TRENDING SLOWER COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN YESTERDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT SLIGHTLY BY BLENDING THE GFS AND ECMWF. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GFS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST MON MORNING THROUGH TUE MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GALES LATE MON THROUGH SUNSET TUE. SREF SHOWS 30 PERCENT OR MORE CHANCE OF GALES BEGINNING 1800 UTC MON AND ENDING 1800 UTC TUE...WITH THE NAM TIMED BETWEEN THE 1200 UTC GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF TIMING WHICH AGREES WITH THE IDEA OF A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONT THAN THE GFS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC UNTIL TUE WHEN THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS IS PREFERRED. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. THE NWPS LOOKS GOOD FOR ADJUSTING THE WAVES. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN THEN LOW CONFIDENCE. SHOWS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OR HIGHER OF WINDS MEETING THE ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY TUE MORNING INTO EARLY WED MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS IS PREFERRED. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RAMPS UP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER N CENTRAL WATERS STARTING MON MORNING AND SENDS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS S THROUGH WESTERN WATERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE SLOWER ECMWF SHOWS ADVISORY CONDITONS FOR WIND NOT BEGINNING UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW MON ONWARD. WILL MAINTAIN THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR WIND...BUT WILL NEED TO BUMP UP THE WIND IN THE BLEND TO MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE A DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION BECAUSE THE TIMING YIELDS LOWER WINDS THAN ANTICIPATED EVERYWHERE RATHER THAN STRONGER WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.