000 AGXX40 KNHC 121812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 112 PM EST WED NOV 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. PREVIOUS NWPS BLENDED WITH 12Z MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS OFF THE TEXAS COAST INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION SW TO 26N95W TO THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR TAMPICO. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE REGION TO 24N96W TO JUST SOUTH OF TUXPAN MEXICO TONIGHT...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO 25N94W TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO THU...THEN STALL AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE LIKELIHOOD OF GALES BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF MATERIALIZING THU AND THU NIGHT. LATEST 12Z GFS AND UKMET ARE SHOWING GALES STARTING AT 12Z THU MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TAMAULIPAS JUST N OF TAMPICO...THEN ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AS WELL. GIVEN THE ADVECTION OF COLD AIR OVER RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS AND THE STRONG HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDING OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO...WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY. OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FT BY THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING PER NWPS AND MWW3 OUTPUT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT LATE WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 FT. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT INDICATING MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW RE-ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SAT. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET INDICATE A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS SHIFTING E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN...WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY SUN WITH A REPEAT OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF. THIS LIKELY WILL HERALD ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES OVER THE WESTERN GULF MON OF NEXT WEEK IN ZONE GMZ017 AND POSSIBLY ZONE GMZ023. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. PREVIOUS NWPS BLENDED WITH 12Z MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3-6 FT...HIGHEST E OF 72W. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SAT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS EXPECTED. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADES WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. PREVIOUS NWPS BLENDED WITH 12Z MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW PRES N OF THE AREA MOVING TO THE NE. EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA BEHIND A WEAK SECONDARY BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS FURTHER AND SHIFTS NE. A MORNING ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT WITH BUOY 41010 READING 6 FT. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FURTHER THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT E THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THU FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS NE. WHILE MOST OF THE STRONGER WINDS REMAIN N OF 30N...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDES THE FRONT ACROSS ZONE AMZ115. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA EARLY THU...REACHING FROM 31N77W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA BY FRI...AND FROM 31N71W TO KEY BISCAYNE BY SAT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N STARTING LATE FRI BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG ROUGHLY 26N BY SAT LATE INTO SUN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E FLOW... BECOMING SE N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING THU. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING THU INTO THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.