000 AGXX40 KNHC 111811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 111 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM SE TEXAS THROUGH NE MEXICO AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED IN RECENT SHIP...BUOY...AND OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS...INCLUDING A RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS...ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND A 1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N87W. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL GULF ON WED. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 25N96W BY WED. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION...THE GFS AND UKMET INDICATE WINDS TO 30 KT OFF THE SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS COAST BY LATE WED AND TO GALE FORCE FROM JUST N OF TAMPICO THROUGH VERACRUZ BY EARLY THU. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GALES AS WELL. THE GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES INDICATE A CHANCE FOR GALES OFF TAMAULIPAS EARLY THU BUT NOT FARTHER SOUTH BY VERACRUZ. WITH FAIRLY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO...WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST THU INTO FRI. THEREFORE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE GALES OFF TAMAULIPAS BY MIDDAY THU AND OFF VERACRUZ LATE THU ENDING FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 15 FT ACCORDING TO LATEST RUN OF THE NWPS. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AFTER MID WEEK WITH 3 TO 6 FT SEAS... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3-6 FT...HIGHEST E OF 72W. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA AND WILL BECOME DIFFUSE WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADES WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 12Z ANALYZED SHOWS AN OCCLUDED LOW PRES OF 1007 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 29N78W. WHILE BUOY 41010 CONTINUES TO REPORT 10 TO 15 KT DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW CENTER...AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 11/1450 UTC INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NE AT 15 KT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 6 TO 7 FT AND SUBSIDING ON WED W OF 77W. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAIN ACTIVE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND N OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N76W TO 21N72W. THIS TROUGHING WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION MOVING N OF 30N BY THU. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THU NIGHT...AND REACH FROM 31N75W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY FRI...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST AND REACHES FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA BY LATE FRI. NW SWELL TO 8 FT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA N OF ABOUT 30N BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH SAT. OTHERWISE MODERATE BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.