000 AGXX40 KNHC 110801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE WEEK. A TROUGH REACHES FROM S TEXAS THROUGH NE MEXICO AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED IN AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND 1016 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TODAY FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FAR NW GULF TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO BY LATE WED. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION...THE GFS AND UKMET INDICATE WINDS TO 30 KT OFF THE SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS COAST BY LATE WED AND TO GALE FORCE FROM JUST N OF TAMPICO THROUGH VERACRUZ BY EARLY THU. THIS IS IN LINE WITH SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GALES AS WELL. THE GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES INDICATE A CHANCE FOR GALES OFF TAMAULIPAS EARLY THU BUT NOT FARTHER SOUTH BY VERACRUZ. WITH FAIRLY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO...WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST THU INTO FRI. THUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE GALES OFF TAMAULIPAS BY MIDDAY THU AND OFF VERACRUZ LATE THU ENDING FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 13 FT. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AFTER MID WEEK WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-6 FT. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT SE AND STALL TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADES WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST REPORTS FROM BUOY 41010 INDICATE THE PRESSURE ON AN OCCLUDED LOW PRES NEAR 29N79W IS DOWN TO 1005 MB. EARLIER SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ASCAT DATA INDICATED STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BEYOND 90 NM ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD 32N75W BY LATE TODAY...WITH A BAND OF AT LEAST 20 TO 25 KT WINDS 90 TO 120 NM ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL REACH 8 FT IN THESE AREAS...BUT LIMITED DURATION OF THE STRONGER WINDS OVER ANY ONE SPOT WILL LIMIT WAVE GROWTH OVERALL N OF 27N. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE E OF THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SHIFT TO E OF 70W THROUGH LATE TODAY...AND MOSTLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WED NIGHT...AND REACH FROM 31N77W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY LATE THU...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST AND REACHES FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA BY LATE FRI. NW SWELL TO 8 FT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA N OF ABOUT 29N BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH THU. OTHERWISE MODERATE BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.