000 AGXX40 KNHC 101818 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 118 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GULF YESTERDAY. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN ALL AREAS. SEAS ARE 1 TO 4 FT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E TODAY...ALLOWING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP THIS EVENING OFF THE TEXAS AND TAMAULIPAS COASTS. THIS WILL TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE STARTING MID-WEEK WILL BE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER TEXAS AND N CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS VERACRUZ LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWFINDICATED 30-35 KT PEAK...THE 00Z NAVGEM ONLY GETS TO 25 KT... WHILE THE 12Z GFS REACHES 35 KT...ALL ON THURSDAY. MAY NEED TO BOOST FORECAST UP TO GALE ON THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON GUIDANCE RECEIVED THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF BY LATE THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SE FRESH BREEZE RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-6 FT. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT SE AND STALL BY TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADES WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30N78W THEN DOWN TO CENTRAL CUBA CUBA NEAR 23N79W. THIS MORNING...THE SAUF1 C-MAN STATION INDICATED 25 KT N WINDS ALONG THE NE FLORIDA COAST. HIGHEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY PEAK AT NEAR GALE CONDITIONS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE N OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD AND REACH 31N71W TO 25N74W TO 22N78W. THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND DROP TO A FRESH BREEZE BY LATE TUESDAY. SEAS ARE 8 TO 9 FT WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE LOW CENTER. THESE SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...WINDS ARE MODERATE BREEZE OR WEAKER AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.