000 AGXX40 KNHC 100800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE STARTING MID WEEK. HIGH PRES IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GULF YESTERDAY. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN ALL AREAS TO INCLUDE THE FAR SW GULF WHERE WINDS WHERE ALMOST TO GALE FORCE YESTERDAY. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT ALTHOUGH UP TO 6 FT IN THE SW GULF WHERE RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SWELL IS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT BY LATE MORNING. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E TODAY...ALLOWING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP TODAY OFF THE TEXAS AND TAMAULIPAS COASTS. THIS WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY ON TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY WED MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE STARTING MID WEEK WILL BE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS VERACRUZ LATE WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE SREF IS NOT SHOWING ANY PROBABILITIES FOR GALES AT THIS TIME FOR THU IN THE WESTERN GULF...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET ARE SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS BY THU AFTERNOON OFF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ BY THU NIGHT. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE PATTERN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON GALE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS BUT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 30 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF FOR THU. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE SW GULF BY LATE THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN N OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-6 FT. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT SE AND STALL THROUGH TUE BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE WED WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N78W THEN ON TO NW CUBA NEAR 23N81W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER INDICATED STRONG WINDS ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA AS THE LOW PRES MAKE SLOW PROGRESS N OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT WITHIN 120 NM SW OF THE LOW CENTER. ELSEWHERE THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR FRESH TRADES S OF 22N W OF 70W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.